Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE: CARR) Monthly Stock Report - December 31, 2025

Company Overview

Carrier Global Corporation, based in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, is a distinguished leader in the climate and energy solutions market. Established in 2019, the company has swiftly carved out a significant position within the Building Products & Equipment industry, which is part of the broader Industrials sector. Carrier operates through two primary segments: Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning (HVAC), and Refrigeration. In the HVAC domain, it serves both residential and commercial customers, offering a comprehensive range of products and services that includes advanced air conditioning systems, heating solutions, and sophisticated building automation technologies. The Refrigeration segment, on the other hand, emphasizes transport refrigeration systems and digital solutions applicable to various vehicles and shipping containers.

Renowned brands under Carrier's umbrella include Carrier, Viessmann, Toshiba, and Bryant, showcasing the company's commitment to quality and innovation in climate control technology. With total revenues reaching approximately $22.06 billion, Carrier is well-positioned to leverage growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets.

52-Week Price Performance Analysis

52-Week Price Performance Chart

Analyzing the 52-week price performance of Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) reveals a largely bearish trend. Over the past year, the stock has declined approximately 21%, peaking at $81.09 in July before falling to its current price of $53.34.

Technical Insights:

• Resistance Levels: A key resistance level is established around $70, which the stock has not been able to consistently maintain since April.
• Support Levels: The current price of approximately $53.43 suggests a support area, albeit one that is less well-defined than the resistance.
• Moving Average: The stock's 50-day moving average is $55.04, which indicates that the recent trading activity is still below this benchmark, suggesting a persistent bearish trend.

Momentum analyses have shown weak recovery attempts, particularly with a failed breakout above the moving average that occurred in August. While recent price actions reflect some consolidation around the $53-$55 range, the overarching bearish sentiment remains unless a significant catalyst emerges to trigger a trend reversal.

Investors should remain vigilant for any movements above the moving average or a potential test of the $70 resistance, as these will provide crucial indicators for the future trajectory of the stock.

Financial Performance and Metrics

Carrier's robust financial metrics bolster its attractiveness as an investment. The company reported total revenues of $22.06 billion, underscoring its strong market presence. Additionally, the company boasts an impressive EBITDA of nearly $3.65 billion, highlighting operational efficiency and room for growth.

Key Financial Metrics:

• Current Share Price: $53.34
• Market Capitalization: $42.03 billion (based on outstanding shares of 842,209,781)
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): Adjusted earnings per share for Q3 2025 stood at $0.67, surpassing analyst expectations despite a 13% year-over-year decline.
• Dividends: The company recently announced a quarterly dividend increase to $0.24 per share, marking a 200% increase since its spin-off, reflecting a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
• Short Interest: With 11,112,207 shares shorted and a short percent of float at only 1.61%, this indicates a moderate level of investor confidence regarding the company's future performance.

Recent News and Developments

Recent developments within Carrier Global Corporation have further highlighted its strategic initiatives and resilience in the market. Key announcements include:

1. Dividend Increase: The company declared a 200% increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.24 per share, payable on February 9, 2026, which reflects the management's confidence in sustaining profitability and shareholder returns.

2. Q3 2025 Earnings Report: During its latest earnings call, Carrier reported net sales of $5.58 billion, a 7% decline year-over-year, with organic sales down 4%. Despite these challenges, the adjusted EPS exceeded analyst expectations, showcasing financial adaptability.

3. Share Repurchase Authorization: A noteworthy $5 billion share repurchase authorization was announced, indicating management's belief in the company's valuation and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations

The current market sentiment surrounding Carrier Global Corporation is moderately optimistic. Analyst consensus points towards a "Moderate Buy" rating from a pool of 22 analysts. The gathered insights reflect an average price target which suggests a potential upside from current levels.

Analyst Insights:

• Mean Price Target: Approximately $71.94, signaling a favorable outlook.
• Target Price Range: The target high is set at $90.00, while the low stands at $59.00, indicating a potential price range within which the stock is expected to perform moving forward.
• Analyst Recommendations: The overall recommendation is to buy, with a mean score of 2.0, suggesting that most analysts view the stock as a strong investment opportunity at its current pricing levels.

Conclusion

Carrier Global Corporation remains a pivotal player in the climate and energy solutions sector, with strong financial fundamentals and analyst support suggesting a promising trajectory. The stock's current price of $53.34, while less than its historical highs, presents an appealing entry point given its considerable upside potential.

Investors should weigh the positive aspects of Carrier's robust revenue generation and strategic capital allocation against potential risks stemming from its recent price decline and bearish market sentiment. Keeping a close watch on support and resistance levels will be critical as Carrier navigates through the complexities of the current market landscape.

Investors interested in investing in Carrier Global Corporation should conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor to tailor investments to their specific risk profile and objectives.