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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Stock Analysis

By Nova Skye | AltStation.io | Updated September 19, 2026

Price
$530.80
Change
-0.08%
Market Cap
$75.41B
Avg Volume
874.6K

Company Overview

Northrop Grumman is an aerospace and defense heavyweight in the Industrials sector, based in Falls Church, Virginia. The company builds mission-critical military hardware and technology across four operating divisions: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems. Its product line spans stealth strike aircraft and autonomous drones to missile defense interceptors, tactical rocket motors, radar, and military satellites. The customer base is heavily concentrated, with the U.S. government and Department of Defense generating approximately 85% to 87% of total sales, while foreign allied governments purchase the remaining balance.

Northrop operates as an elite top-tier defense prime, squaring off directly with heavyweights like Lockheed Martin, RTX, and General Dynamics. Its decisive advantage is a near-monopoly on high-priority strategic deterrence assets, anchoring premier long-term defense programs such as the B-21 Raider stealth bomber. These massive technological barriers make the company practically irreplaceable to the Pentagon. The main risk is high revenue concentration with one buyer, leaving the business exposed to shifting congressional budget priorities and fixed-price cost overruns.

Right now, the company is in a sustained expansion cycle driven by elevated global defense spending. Northrop posted full-year 2025 revenue of $42.0 billion, up 2% year-over-year, backed by a strong book-to-bill ratio of 1.10. Its backlog reached a record $95.7 billion at the end of 2025 and expanded to $105 billion by the second quarter of 2026. As major production lines ramp up, Northrop is positioned for steady, predictable top-line execution if manufacturing schedules and supply chains hold.

Key Financials
Market Cap
$75.41B
Revenue
$42.89B
EBITDA
$7.26B
Gross Margin
20.1%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Revenue Growth
5.1%
Total Cash
$2.31B
Total Debt
$17.05B
Free Cash Flow
$2.48B


52-Week Price Performance Analysis

Price Statistics
P/E Ratio
16.88
Forward P/E
17.43
Beta
-0.11
52-Week High
$774.00
52-Week Low
$479.02
EPS
$31.45
50-Day Avg
$543.93
200-Day Avg
$601.55
Price/Book
4.22
NOC 52-Week Stock Chart
Technical Analysis
NOC trades at $530.80, near the bottom of its technical 52-week range of $476.85 to $767.12. The stock is 19% of the way from the low to the high, sitting 30.75% below the high and 11.41% above the low. Price is 1.32% below the 20-day moving average of $538.35. Momentum improved 2.44% over the last five trading days, but the 20-day reading remains negative at -6.41%. Near-term support is $514.98, while resistance stands at $586.47.


Recent News and Developments

Sentinel missile clears key assembly milestone

Northrop Grumman and the U.S. Air Force fully assembled an inert Sentinel missile at Vandenberg Space Force Base after a four-month test event. The milestone validated the integration process ahead of a planned 2027 flight test. Source: Northrop Grumman

Guggenheim starts NOC at Buy with $612 target

Guggenheim initiated coverage of Northrop Grumman with a Buy rating and a $612 price target. NOC closed at $527.90, putting the target roughly 16% above the latest close. Source: AD HOC NEWS

Weiss Ratings lowers Northrop Grumman grade

Weiss Ratings downgraded Northrop Grumman from Hold with a C+ grade to Hold with a C grade on September 10. The firm did not publish a price target with the downgrade. Source: PriceTargets.com



Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations

Bull Case
Revenue is $42.89 billion and growing 5.1%, giving Northrop Grumman measurable top-line momentum. The stock trades at 16.88 times earnings, which is reasonable if that growth continues. Twenty-two analysts rate NOC a buy. Their average target is $646.41, or $115.61 above the current $530.80 price. The Sentinel program cleared an important integration milestone with the full assembly of an inert missile ahead of a planned 2027 flight test. The Lumberjack drone also completed a GPS-free magnetic-navigation test, showing that Northrop Grumman platforms can support new navigation technology. The buy case is straightforward: a profitable defense company with positive revenue growth, visible program progress, and substantial analyst upside is trading 30.75% below its 52-week high.
Bear Case
Northrop Grumman carries $17.05 billion in debt against $2.31 billion in cash. That gap limits financial flexibility and makes execution more important. The stock is 30.75% below its 52-week high, so the broader trend has done real damage. Twenty-day momentum is negative 6.41%, and the price remains 1.32% below its 20-day moving average. A break below $514.98 would weaken the near-term setup, and the provided data does not identify another support level beneath it. The lowest analyst target is $538.00, just $7.20 above the current price, so the cautious end of the analyst range offers little upside. Weiss Ratings also lowered its grade from Hold C+ to Hold C on September 10, adding a clear counterpoint to the bullish consensus.
What to Watch
The first test is whether NOC holds the $514.98 near-term support level. A move back above the $538.35 20-day moving average would improve the technical picture. A push through $586.47 resistance would be a stronger signal that the recent weakness is reversing. Investors should track progress toward the Sentinel program’s planned 2027 flight test following the completed inert-missile assembly. Revenue growth needs to hold near or improve from 5.1%, while the $17.05 billion debt load and $2.31 billion cash balance deserve close attention. Analyst revisions also matter: the current consensus target is $646.41, with estimates ranging from $538.00 to $815.00.
Analyst Consensus
BUY

Based on 22 analyst opinions
Low Target
$538.00
Mean Target
$646.41
High Target
$815.00


Earnings and Financial Data

Sector
Industrials
Industry
Aerospace & Defense
Employees
95,000
Earnings & Dividends
Next Earnings
Oct 20, 2026
EPS (Trailing)
$31.45
Dividend Yield
186.0%
Payout Ratio
29.9%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is NOC a good stock to buy?
Twenty-two analysts rate NOC a buy, and the average target of $646.41 is above the current $530.80 price. The takeaway is that analyst sentiment is bullish, but the stock still needs to stabilize technically.
What is NOC’s price target?
The average analyst target is $646.41, with estimates ranging from $538.00 to $815.00. The takeaway is that expectations vary widely, despite the buy consensus.
What is NOC’s 52-week range?
The technical price series shows a 52-week low of $476.85 and a high of $767.12. At $530.80, NOC is 19% of the way from that low to the high.
Is NOC stock overvalued?
NOC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.88 and has revenue growth of 5.1%. The takeaway is that the supplied data does not establish overvaluation, but it also provides no peer comparison.
Does NOC pay a dividend?
The supplied key and technical data do not include a dividend amount or yield. The takeaway is that no dividend conclusion can be made from the provided figures.

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Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis and opinions expressed are those of AltStation.io and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Updated September 19, 2026.