Monthly Stock Report: Dollar General Corporation (DG)

Publication Date: October 22, 2025

Company Overview

Founded in 1939 and based in Goodlettsville, Tennessee, Dollar General Corporation operates within the discount retail industry, specifically in the consumer defensive sector. This well-established company has successfully catered to shoppers across the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern regions of the United States by offering a vast array of products, including essential consumables like paper goods, laundry products, packaged foods, personal care items, and seasonal home products.

Originally named J.L. Turner & Son, Inc., Dollar General rebranded in 1968 to reflect its commitment to providing affordable goods. With a strategic focus on value-oriented shopping, particularly during challenging economic times, Dollar General has positioned itself strongly within an industry that, as of recent reports, boasts a total revenue of approximately $41.65 billion. This positions Dollar General as a compelling investment opportunity, especially given the "buy" recommendation backed by the current market conditions.

52-Week Price Performance Analysis

52-Week Price Performance Chart

Analyzing Dollar General's price movements over the past year reveals a bullish trend characterized by consistent higher highs and higher lows from October through August, as depicted in a detailed 52-week stock price chart. Following its peak at $117.95, the stock has exhibited volatility, showing both a 52-week low of $66.43 and recent price action that indicates a retreat.

As of the last trading day, shares are priced at $106.14, slightly below its fifty-day moving average of $106.49. The overall trend raises some concerns about potential short-term weakness in momentum. The stock has recently tested critical support at the $80 level, successfully bouncing back with a current price reflecting a 33.54% increase since that point. The significant resistance level around $110 has proven challenging to surpass, indicating that moving forward, investors should monitor movements closely around these technical levels.

Key Technical Insights:

• Support Level: $80
• Resistance Level: $110
• Current Price: $106.14
• Fifty-Two-Week High: $117.95
• Fifty-Two-Week Low: $66.43

A consolidation phase appears likely, with the upcoming trading sessions vital to confirm whether the stock will breakout above $110, suggesting bullish continuation, or revert below $80, which may indicate a bearish reversal.

Financial Performance and Metrics

Dollar General has demonstrated robust financial health with total revenue of $41.65 billion alongside an impressive EBITDA of $3.03 billion. This performance reflects the company's effective operational strategies that have catered to value-seeking consumers during uncertain economic environments.

Key Financial Metrics:

• Total Revenue: $41.65 billion
• EBITDA: $3.03 billion
• Current Stock Price: $106.14
• Market Capitalization: Approximately $23.41 billion (based on current share price)
• Outstanding Shares: 220,106,028
• Short Interest: 4.45% (8,669,278 shares shorted of 218,437,624 available for trading)

With these indicators, Dollar General proves to be financially sound and an attractive option for investors seeking a stable return amid a burgeoning discount retail market.

Recent News and Developments

In recent months, Dollar General has faced a mixed trajectory with its financial performance impacting investor sentiment. Earnings for the first quarter of 2025 revealed net sales growth of 5% year-over-year to $10.4 billion, while same-store sales rose modestly by 2%. This positive trend led to a stock surge of approximately 16.69% and upgrades from analysts, including a price target uplift to $130 per share by Oppenheimer.

Contrastingly, the company encountered hurdles with its second-quarter earnings, where an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.70 fell short of expectations, marking a 20% year-over-year decline. The modest 0.5% same-store sales growth missed the anticipated 2.1% consensus, leading to a downward revision of the full-year financial forecast. CFRA subsequently downgraded the stock from "Buy" to "Hold," reducing the price target to $103.

Responding to these challenges, Dollar General is taking active steps to enhance profitability. The company plans to eliminate 1,000 products that are prone to loss or damage as part of its strategy to combat shoplifting and improve margins. Additionally, efforts to restructure the distribution network and streamline warehouse processes are underway, aimed at expediting the flow of goods to stores.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations

Market sentiment surrounding Dollar General is cautiously optimistic. The current price sits at $106.14, reflecting potential upside with a target high price of $139.00. The mean analyst price target stands at approximately $120.11, with a median price of $120.00.

Analyst recommendations indicate a favorable stance, underscored by a mean recommendation score of 2.35, corresponding to "buy" within standard rating systems, coming from a robust sample of 28 different analyst opinions.

Summary of Analyst Recommendations:

• Target High Price: $139.00
• Mean Target Price: $120.11
• Median Target Price: $120.00
• Current Recommendation: Buy

Despite the mixed financial performance, the consensus suggests that opportunities still abound for investors willing to navigate the inherent risks associated with retail market dynamics.

Conclusion

Dollar General Corporation presents a strong investment opportunity both for retail investors seeking stability in the fluctuating market of discount retail. The combination of solid financial metrics, a robust operational strategy, and a generally positive market sentiment underscores the attractiveness of this equity. However, upcoming price movements at technical levels, alongside strategic adaptations to market conditions, will be pivotal in determining the stock's trajectory as we progress through this fiscal year. Potential investors are encouraged to stay informed and consider both the opportunities and risks outlined in this analysis.