Dow Inc. Monthly Stock Report | October 23, 2025

As we delve into the latest investment analysis for Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW), we'll explore significant trends impacting the company's performance, contextualize its recent financial health, analyze market sentiment, and present strategic recommendations for potential investors.

Company Overview

Dow Inc., established in 1897 and headquartered in Midland, Michigan, is a prominent entity in the chemicals industry, specifically within the basic materials sector. The company's extensive portfolio spans across various applications including packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer products. Dow operates through three main segments:

1. Packaging & Specialty Plastics - Includes ethylene and polyethylene products.
2. Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure - Comprises polyurethanes and chlor-alkali products.
3. Performance Materials & Coatings - Focuses on paints and coatings.

With a substantial global presence, Dow generates approximately $41.82 billion in revenue. Despite robust sales figures, analysts currently advise a "hold" rating on the stock due to market volatility and reduced profitability expectations.

52-Week Price Performance Analysis

52-Week Price Performance Chart

A meticulous study of Dow Inc.'s stock price over the last 52 weeks reveals significant volatility, with the stock hitting a high of $52.16 and a low of $20.402. A notable trend is the bearish movement that has characterized much of this timeframe; following the peak in October of the previous year, the stock price has experienced a stark decline of around 54.21%.

Technical Insights:

• Current Price: $24.015, positioned moderately above the 50-day moving average of $23.3762, suggesting a short-term positive outlook.
• Support Level: Currently at $21.7, showcasing some stability after hitting a 52-week low in August 2025.
• Resistance Level: Notably around $30, which the stock has struggled to breach on multiple occasions.

Due to the bearish sentiment reinforced by the moving average, and consistent downward price action, investors should approach this stock with caution. The absence of bullish patterns indicates further downside risks unless strong market catalysts are identified.

Financial Performance and Metrics

Dow's financial health presents both strengths and challenges. Recently, the company reported a smaller-than-anticipated adjusted loss in Q3 2025. Key financial highlights include:

• Total Revenue: Approximately $10.1 billion, reflecting a 7.3% year-over-year decline.
• EBITDA: Standing at around $3.86 billion, this figure suggests operational profitability, though it is under stress from declining sales.
• Shares Outstanding: 708,844,151 shares, with 28,974,439 shares shorted, leading to a short percent of float of approximately 4.63%--indicating a relatively low level of short interest and positive sentiment amongst investors.

Analysts have set a target high price of $45.00, suggesting a significant upside potential from the current trading level, with a mean price target of $27.31 indicative of moderate growth expectations.

Valuation Metrics:

• Current Price: $24.015
• Target Low Price: $20.00
• Target Median Price: $24.50

These figures suggest a cautious yet potentially rewarding investment position depending on market conditions.

Recent News and Developments

Recent developments have further shaped market perception:

1. Q3 2025 Earnings: Dow reported an adjusted loss of $0.19 per share, outpacing analyst expectations of a $0.29 loss, driven by effective cost-cutting and output enhancement from recently established facilities in the U.S. Gulf Coast.
2. Dividend Cut: A notable 50% reduction in dividends to $0.35 per share was announced to conserve liquidity amid dwindling cash flows.
3. Divestment Strategy: Dow has sold its 50% stake in DowAksa to refocus on its core business sectors, which underscores a strategic shift to enhance financial performance.

However, not all news has been positive; a class action lawsuit for allegedly overstating the company's financial resilience has added uncertainty to its market standing.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations

Market sentiment remains a pivotal factor influencing Dow's stock performance. Current analyst recommendations reflect a collective caution:

• Analyst Consensus: The mean recommendation score stands at 2.7, indicating a preference for a "hold" strategy.
• Price Target Adjustments: UBS recently lowered its price target from $25 to $23, aligning with the cautious market outlook.

Given the mixed bag of insights from the financial data, recent performances, and analyst expectations, investors are generally advised to maintain their current positions rather than making new investments or exiting the stock.

Conclusion

In summary, while Dow Inc. showcases a wealth of opportunities fueled by its strong market position, its recent financial struggles, bearish price trends, and cautious analyst outlooks underscore the risks in the current environment. The fundamental strength of the company amid challenging market conditions presents a valuable consideration for retail investors. Staying informed on market developments and trading dynamics will be critical for making sound investment decisions in the coming months.

As always, maintain a balanced approach in your portfolio, leveraging insightful analysis to navigate challenges and seize opportunities.