AJG – Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Monthly Stock Report – November 12, 2025

Company Overview

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois, stands as a formidable player in the insurance brokers industry, a crucial segment of the broader financial services sector. Founded in 1927, Gallagher has evolved into a comprehensive service provider, offering a range of solutions that encompass insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property and casualty claims settlement. The company caters to various sectors, including commercial, industrial, nonprofit, and religious organizations, demonstrating its versatility and broad market reach.

Gallagher operates primarily through two segments: Brokerage and Risk Management. These segments allow the company to manage employer-sponsored benefit programs, engage in specialized insurance placement, and provide expert claims management and loss control consulting. With a robust network of brokers and consultants, AJG is well-positioned in the insurance space, making it an appealing investment target for those seeking exposure in the sector.

52-Week Price Performance Analysis

The stock performance of Arthur J. Gallagher presents an intriguing mix of volatility and potential. Over the past year, AJG has demonstrated a pronounced bearish trend. While it reached a 52-week high of $351.23, the current trading price stands at $255.69, approximately 27.2% lower than its peak.

Key Technical Insights:

• Current Price: $255.69
• 52-Week High: $351.23
• 52-Week Low: $239.47
• Fifty-Day Moving Average: $287.51
• Critical Support Level: $255 (recent low)
• Significant Resistance Level: $300 (previous support now acting as resistance)

The price chart indicates that AJG’s stock oscillated between bullish and bearish sentiments throughout the year. A notable bullish phase persisted from November to May, progressively culminating in a peak around February and May. However, post-June, the stock has sharply declined, especially since August. This has resulted in a current support level at $255, which investors should monitor closely, as its viability to hold could indicate either consolidation or further downside.

Furthermore, the moving average has crossed below the current price line, an indication of increasing selling pressure that may suggest a continuation of the downward trend unless a notable reversal is seen.

Momentum Analysis

The stock’s momentum has intensified from September onwards, revealing increased volatility and marking a significant shift into a bearish phase. Without discernible bullish reversal patterns emerging, such as a double bottom or head-and-shoulders formation, current signals suggest that AJG may remain under pressure in the near-term.

Financial Performance and Metrics

Analyzing AJG’s financial health presents a compelling case of resilience amidst challenges. The company has demonstrated robust revenue performance, with total revenues reported at approximately $12.08 billion, reflecting an 11.2% year-over-year growth. Additionally, AJG’s EBITDA stands at $3.44 billion, underlining strong operational profitability.

Key Financial Metrics:

• Total Revenue: $12.08 billion
• Adjusted Net Earnings: $604.9 million (Q3 2025), representing $2.32 per share
• Previous Year (Q3 2024) Net Earnings: $504.9 million ($2.26 per share)
• EBITDA: $3.44 billion

This strong fiscal performance has informed analysts’ positive sentiment, with average price targets projected between $319.80 and $388.00, demonstrating an encouraging growth outlook despite recent stock price declines. AJG has 256,805,000 shares outstanding, with only 3,767,919 shares currently sold short, signaling minimal short-seller interest and suggesting that the broader market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.

Recent News and Developments

Recent announcements surrounding AJG have been pivotal in shaping its stock narrative. On October 30, 2025, the company released its third-quarter earnings report, showcasing a marked revenue increase to $3.33 billion from $2.77 billion in the previous year. This strong revenue growth occurred while EBITDA remained healthy, reinforcing the notion of a resilient business model.

Moreover, the acquisition of AssuredPartners for $13.8 billion, funded through a mix of equity and senior notes, is noteworthy. This strategic move may bolster AJG’s market positioning further, although it requires careful integration to maximize shareholder value.

However, the market interpreted its third-quarter earnings miss as a setback, leading to some consolidation strategies among analysts. Recent insider trading also raised questions about confidence levels within the company, as CFO Douglas K. Howell sold shares in two separate transactions totaling approximately $2.89 million.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations

The overall market sentiment around Arthur J. Gallagher indicates a complex blend of optimism and caution. Despite recent stock volatility, analyst consensus remains favorable, suggesting a potential upside. As of now, the average price target set by analysts stands at approximately $348.36, with a range from a cautious $275.00 to an optimistic $388.00, reflecting potential returns upwards of 13.5% from current prices.

Analyst Consensus:

• Overweight Rating: Maintained by Wells Fargo
• Investment Recommendation: Buy
• Average Price Target: $348.36 (Wells Fargo)
• Target Mean Price: $319.80
• Median Target Price: $315.00

With 15 analysts providing insights, the majority vote at a positive recommendation mean of 1.88889 suggests a resilient confidence in AJG’s potential recovery and long-term growth trajectory despite the bearish current trend.

Conclusion

In summary, while Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is navigating through a challenging market phase characterized by stock price declines and recent earnings misses, its robust financials and strategic acquisitions provide a foundation suggesting potential recovery. The company’s focus on expanding market share and resilience through diversified service offerings positions it well for long-term growth. However, investors should remain vigilant, monitoring support levels and potential bullish reversal signals before making investment decisions. The landscape ahead shows both opportunities and risks, reinforcing the need for a balanced perspective on this prominent insurance broker.

Metric	Value
Market Cap	$65.7b
Total Debt	$13.7b
Total Cash	$1.4b
Shares Outstanding	256.8m
Float Shares	253.9m