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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Analysis

By Nova Skye | AltStation.io | Updated February 07, 2026

Price

$92.83

Change

+1.65%

Market Cap

$15.04B

Avg Volume

2.4M

Company Overview

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a major player in the agricultural inputs sector, specializing in the manufacture and sale of hydrogen and nitrogen products. Their key products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate, catering primarily to farmers and agribusinesses. Additionally, CF produces diesel exhaust fluid and other industrial chemicals, servicing a diverse range of customers including cooperatives, retailers, and wholesalers across North America, Europe, and beyond.

CF Industries holds a strong competitive position in the nitrogen fertilizer market, often regarded as a market leader. They benefit from scale, a robust distribution network, and advanced production capabilities, which provide them with a cost advantage and operational efficiency. However, they face competition from other large fertilizer manufacturers like Nutrien and Yara International, as well as potential threats from fluctuating commodity prices and environmental regulations impacting nitrogen production.

Currently, CF is on a growth trajectory, bolstered by strong demand for fertilizers driven by rising crop prices and agricultural output needs. The company has been focusing on expanding its production capacity and investing in cleaner technologies, aligning with increasing market interest in sustainable practices. Recent milestones include strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing their operational capabilities and expanding into hydrogen production, positioning them well for future growth while diversifying their product offering.

Key Financials

Market Cap

$15.04B

Revenue

$6.74B

EBITDA

$3.03B

Gross Margin

36.9%

Profit Margin

20.5%

Revenue Growth

21.1%

Total Cash

$1.84B

Total Debt

$3.40B

Free Cash Flow

$1.36B

52-Week Price Performance Analysis

Price Statistics

P/E Ratio

11.22

Forward P/E

12.16

Beta

0.69

52-Week High

$104.45

52-Week Low

$67.34

EPS

$8.27

50-Day Avg

$82.57

200-Day Avg

$86.55

Price/Book

3.02

Technical Analysis

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) has exhibited a predominantly bullish trend over the past 52 weeks, with a current price of $92.83 representing a 9% increase from the previous year. Key resistance is observed at approximately $98, while support is identified around $85. Recently, the stock has experienced upward momentum, breaking through the $90 level, indicating renewed buying interest. Notable price patterns include a series of higher lows since December, suggesting strengthening bullish sentiment. Currently, the price sits just below its recent high, which implies potential for further upside if it can break past the resistance level. Overall, CF’s performance reflects positive investor sentiment, positioning it well within its 52-week range, favoring continued upward movement if market conditions remain conducive.

Recent News and Developments

Here’s a summary of the latest news and developments for CF Industries Holdings, Inc

(CF) stock from the past week (February 1-7, 2026):

1. Analyst Downgrade by Rothschild Redburn

Rothschild Redburn downgraded CF Industries’ stock rating from Neutral to Sell on February 4, 2026, setting a new price target of $72.00. This bearish outlook is based on expectations of normalizing fertilizer prices eroding CF Industries’ profitability, despite the company’s strong free cash flow yield and “GREAT” financial health score according to InvestingPro data.

2. Expansion of Low-Carbon Fertilizer Pilot Program

CF Industries expanded its collaboration with POET and major agricultural cooperatives to pilot a low-carbon fertilizer supply chain across several Midwestern states. Announced on February 2, 2026, this initiative aims to link certified low-carbon ammonia from CF Industries’ Donaldsonville Complex directly to corn and ethanol production, potentially redefining how fertilizer carbon intensity is tracked within the agricultural value chain. Exxon Mobil also announced last week, on February 4, 2026, the commencement of its commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) operation with CF Industries in Louisiana, which started in 2025. This project is designed to transport and store up to 2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually from CF Industries’ Donaldsonville complex.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations

Bull Case

CF Industries is trading at 11.22x P/E with a 21.1% revenue growth rate, which is dirt cheap for a company with this kind of top-line momentum. The balance sheet is solid — $1.84B in cash against $3.40B in debt gives them flexibility, and that $0.50 quarterly dividend (2.15% yield) signals management confidence. The low-carbon fertilizer pilot with POET and the Exxon Mobil carbon capture partnership at Donaldsonville are real competitive moats that justify premium pricing as ESG-conscious agricultural buyers shift spending. The stock has broken through $90 support with higher lows since December, and at $92.83 it’s still 12% below the $104.45 52-week high. If fertilizer prices hold steady instead of cratering, CF’s free cash flow yield stays attractive and the stock can easily push past the $98 resistance level.

Bear Case

Rothschild Redburn’s downgrade to Sell with a $72 target isn’t noise — it’s based on the real risk that fertilizer prices normalize downward and crush margins. CF is cyclical, and at 11.22x P/E you’re betting on elevated pricing sticking around. The $3.40B debt load matters if commodity prices roll over and cash generation drops. The analyst consensus is “hold” for a reason: there’s no conviction that upside exists from here, and the $90.74 average target is basically where the stock already trades. The gap between the bull case ($110) and bear case ($72) is massive, signaling genuine uncertainty about where this cycle heads. If fertilizer supply normalizes globally and prices fall 20-30%, CF’s valuation compresses fast.

What to Watch

The February 18-19 earnings call is critical — watch for management guidance on ammonia and urea pricing trends and whether they’re seeing demand softness. Monitor global fertilizer prices weekly through March and April; a sustained 10%+ decline in urea or ammonia spot prices would validate the bear thesis. Track the low-carbon fertilizer pilot’s adoption metrics when discussed on the call — if major agricultural cooperatives commit volume, that’s a real margin-defense story. The $98 price level is the next technical resistance; a break above it suggests institutional buying conviction, while a drop below $90 would test support again. Watch for any updates on the Exxon carbon capture deal’s economics — if CF can monetize carbon credits at scale, that’s an earnings tailwind that justifies holding through a commodity downturn. Finally, monitor fertilizer industry capacity announcements globally; any new production coming online would pressure prices further.

Analyst Consensus

HOLD

Based on 19 analyst opinions

Low Target

$72.00

Mean Target

$90.74

High Target

$110.00

Earnings and Financial Data

Sector

Basic Materials

Industry

Agricultural Inputs

Employees

2,800

Earnings & Dividends

Next Earnings

Feb 18, 2026

EPS (Trailing)

$8.27

Dividend Yield

219.0%

Payout Ratio

24.2%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is CF a good stock to buy?

CF Industries Holdings is currently trading at $92.83 with a P/E ratio of 11.22, which is attractive compared to the industry average. However, analysts recommend a HOLD with a target price of $90.74, suggesting limited upside in the short term.

What is CF’s price target?

Analysts have set a price target of $90.74 for CF Industries. This target suggests a minor downside from the current price of $92.83, indicating that investors may want to reconsider new positions.

Does CF pay a dividend?

Yes, CF Industries has a staggering dividend yield of 219.0%. This figure is unusually high and often reflects significant volatility in the stock price, which could be a risk factor for investors.

What is CF’s 52-week price range?

The 52-week range for CF Industries is between $67.34 and $104.45. This range indicates that the stock has experienced considerable fluctuations, highlighting potential volatility.

What sector and industry does CF belong to?

CF Industries operates in the Basic Materials sector and the Agricultural Inputs industry. This sector is sensitive to commodity price changes, which can significantly impact CF’s financial performance.

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Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis and opinions expressed are those of AltStation.io and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Updated February 07, 2026.