CF – CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Basic Materials | Agricultural Inputs
Key Statistics
AI Monthly Analysis Report
Investment Analysis: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) – November 26, 2025
Company Overview
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) stands as a pivotal player in the Agricultural Inputs industry within the Basic Materials sector. Founded in 1946 and headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, the company is renowned for its production and distribution of hydrogen and nitrogen products. These are essential in various sectors, including energy, fertilizers, emissions abatement, and industrial applications. Specifically, CF Industries offers a range of products such as anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate. Its customer base includes cooperatives, retailers, and industrial users, not just within the United States but also across North America, Europe, and internationally.
With total revenue reaching approximately $6.736 billion, CF Industries has solidified its market position, yet the current investment recommendation leans towards a “hold.” This suggests that while the fundamental aspects of the company are strong, potential investors should remain cautious, watching for more favorable market conditions to emerge.
52-Week Price Performance Analysis
52-Week Price Performance Chart
Analyzing the stock’s performance over the past year reveals a predominantly bearish trend. The 52-week high for CF Industries was recorded at $104.45 on June 17, 2025, propelled by robust global demand for nitrogen fertilizers. However, the stock has since faced significant downward pressure, with the current stock price at $78.72, merely 15% above its 52-week low of $67.34.
Technical Insights
The 52-week price chart illustrates a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows–a clear indication of a bearish trajectory.
- Key Support Levels: The price has recently breached critical support at $77.68, meaning this level now poses a risk if the stock continues to decline.
- Resistance Levels: Resistance has been encountered around the $100 mark, where multiple attempts to break through have failed, further aligning with bearish market sentiment.
- Moving Averages: The fifty-day moving average stands at $85.27, positioning the stock significantly lower than this average. The price dynamics suggest persistent downward momentum, with failed attempts to rise above the moving average in May and July indicating continued selling pressure.
Most significantly, the stock has experienced heightened volatility with a sharp decline of approximately 10.27% in recent weeks. Should CF Industries fail to hold above $77.68 consistently, further declines could follow. Conversely, any upward movement beyond the moving average needs confirmation from sustained price actions above defined resistance levels to validate a change in trend.
Financial Performance and Metrics
CF Industries showcases robust financial performance metrics, as evidenced by substantial total revenue and profit indicators:
- Total Revenue: Approximately $6.736 billion.
- EBITDA: Nearly $3.033 billion, highlighting the company’s strong profitability and effective operational management.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): The recent earnings report posted net earnings of $353 million or $2.19 per diluted share.
- Dividend: The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, payable on November 28, 2025.
Despite these solid figures, investors should be aware of the prevailing recommendation to hold, reflecting a mean recommendation score of 2.63 from 17 analysts. This indicates that while the financial health of the company appears strong, market conditions may not be ripe for aggressive buying.
Valuation Metrics
- Current Stock Price: $78.72
- Target High Price: $110.00 (implies an optimistic view)
- Target Mean Price: Approximately $92.76, indicating expected performance grounded in core market analysis.
- Short Interest: Out of 155,974,644 shares outstanding, approximately 10,854,340 shares are held short, signifying an 8.3% short interest. This suggests a moderate level of investor skepticism about the company’s performance.
Recent News and Developments
Recent developments have played a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment towards CF Industries:
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Analyst Ratings: As of October 14, 2025, B of A Securities has reiterated an “Underperform” rating for CF Industries, projecting an average one-year price target of $97.09, which suggests a potential upside of about 10% from the latest closing price.
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Earnings Report: On November 5, 2025, CF Industries reported third-quarter earnings that included a net income of $353 million. The adjusted EBITDA was recorded at $671 million, signaling continued financial strength despite challenging market conditions.
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Dividend Declaration: The announcement of a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share rewards shareholders while reflecting the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value.
These developments indicate that while CF Industries is maintaining strong fundamentals, broader market dynamics may create volatility that could affect stock performance.
Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations
As of the latest analysis, the overall market sentiment around CF Industries is cautious. Analysts are unified in their moderate position, with a consensus recommendation leaning towards holding rather than buying or selling.
- Analyst Consensus: The mean recommendation score is 2.63, suggesting potential upsides. The specific price targets offered include:
- Target Low Price: $80.00, indicating the risk associated with downside potential.
- Target Mean Price: Approximately $92.76.
- Target High Price: $110.00 reflects a bullish outlook on recovery potential.
Strategic Recommendations
Given the current market conditions and stock performance data, potential investors may consider the following strategies:
– Hold Position: If currently invested, maintaining a position while monitoring market developments is advisable.
– Cautious Observation: For prospective investors, waiting for price confirmations above stated resistance levels and clearer market conditions may yield better entry points.
– Diversification: Engage in broader market diversifications, mitigating risks associated with volatility in the agricultural inputs sector.
Conclusion
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a significant entity in the agricultural inputs landscape, exhibiting healthy financial metrics against a backdrop of complex market dynamics. While the company’s fundamentals appear solid, the short-term outlook suggests caution amidst prevailing bearish trends. Given the inherent volatility and current recommendations, investors should closely monitor price levels and market sentiment while making informed decisions regarding engagement with CF Industries stock.
This analysis is current as of November 26, 2025, and may be subject to change based on market dynamics.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $12.8b |
| Total Debt | $3.4b |
| Total Cash | $1.8b |
| Shares Outstanding | 156.0m |
| Float Shares | 154.4m |
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