ALTSTATION.IO
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis
By Nova Skye | AltStation.io | Updated October 26, 2026
Company Overview
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company’s respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise c
Key Financials
Market Cap
$81.29B
Revenue
$2.23B
EBITDA
-$2.20B
Gross Margin
-66.0%
Profit Margin
-141.4%
Revenue Growth
2.1%
Total Cash
$5.14B
Total Debt
$1.29B
Free Cash Flow
$299.25M
52-Week Price Performance Analysis
Price Statistics
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
-44.94
Beta
1.09
52-Week High
$254.48
52-Week Low
$22.28
EPS
$-7.98
50-Day Avg
$168.42
200-Day Avg
$81.34
Price/Book
12.02
Technical Analysis
MRNA trades at $203.61, placing it 77% of the way from its 52-week low of $22.28 to its high of $254.48. The stock is 21.37% below that high but 798.11% above the low. Price is 4.93% below the 20-day moving average of $210.49. Five-day momentum is negative at 8.22%, while 20-day momentum remains slightly positive at 0.61%. Near-term support is $143.77, and resistance is $245.81.
Recent News and Developments
Moderna posts new mRNA-3927 rare-disease data
Moderna published SSIEM 2026 data on its investigational propionic acidemia therapy covering more than 50 cumulative patient-years of exposure. Of 20 participants, 17 entered the extension study and two discontinued treatment, including one because of an adverse event. Source: Webull
Cancer vaccine cuts melanoma recurrence risk by 42%
Moderna and Merck’s Phase 3 study found that intismeran plus Keytruda reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence by 42% versus Keytruda alone. After two years, 82% of combination patients remained recurrence-free compared with 70% on Keytruda alone, and the companies are discussing approval steps with regulators. Source: Associated Press
MRNA plunges as leaked trial data triggers trading halt
Moderna fell nearly 24% during October 22 trading after embargoed Phase 3 melanoma results appeared online early, triggering a volatility halt. Citi maintained its Sell rating and $80 target, while TD Cowen raised its target from $40 to $90 but kept a Hold rating. Source: Investing.com
Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations
Bull Case
The bull case rests on Moderna proving that its mRNA platform works beyond its existing business. Revenue is $2.23 billion and growing 2.1%, while the company holds $5.14 billion in cash against $1.29 billion in debt. Intismeran plus Keytruda reduced melanoma recurrence risk by 42% versus Keytruda alone in Phase 3. After two years, 82% of combination patients remained recurrence-free compared with 70% on Keytruda alone. The pancreatic cancer study also produced neoantigen-specific T-cell responses in all 19 evaluable patients. Investors buying at $203.61 are betting that these clinical results become meaningful commercial products, because the current analyst target of $135.84 does not support the share price.
Bear Case
MRNA trades well above the $135.84 average analyst target, and the low end of the target range is just $45.00. Even the high target of $251.00 sits below the 52-week high of $254.48. The stock fell nearly 24% during October 22 trading after embargoed melanoma trial data appeared online early, showing how violently it can react to clinical news. Moderna has no reported P/E ratio, so investors cannot justify the $81.29 billion market cap using current earnings. The stock is 4.93% below its 20-day moving average, with five-day momentum at negative 8.22%. Pipeline execution remains a real risk: two participants discontinued the propionic acidemia treatment, including one because of an adverse event.
What to Watch
The biggest catalyst is the regulatory path for intismeran after the Phase 3 melanoma study showed a 42% reduction in recurrence risk. Investors should track whether discussions with regulators turn into concrete approval steps. Follow-up melanoma data also need to preserve the two-year separation between the 82% recurrence-free rate for the combination and 70% for Keytruda alone. The mRNA-3927 extension study matters because 17 of 20 participants entered it, while two discontinued treatment. On the chart, $245.81 is the near-term resistance level and $143.77 is the near-term support level. A recovery above the $210.49 moving average would improve the technical picture, while continued negative five-day momentum would confirm that the October volatility is not finished.
Analyst Consensus
HOLD
Based on 19 analyst opinions
Low Target
$45.00
Mean Target
$135.84
High Target
$251.00
Earnings and Financial Data
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Biotechnology
Employees
4,700
Earnings & Dividends
Next Earnings
Nov 06, 2026
EPS (Trailing)
$-7.98
Dividend Yield
None
Payout Ratio
0%
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRNA a good stock to buy?
MRNA trades at $203.61, while 19 analysts rate it a hold with an average target of $135.84. The takeaway is that the current price requires more optimism than the analyst consensus supports.
What is MRNA’s price target?
The average analyst target is $135.84, with estimates ranging from $45.00 to $251.00. The takeaway is that analyst expectations are widely divided and the average target is below the current price.
How far is MRNA from its 52-week high?
MRNA is 21.37% below its 52-week high of $254.48. The takeaway is that the stock has pulled back materially but remains 77% of the way through its 52-week range.
What are MRNA’s support and resistance levels?
Near-term support is the 30-day low of $143.77, while resistance is the 30-day high of $245.81. The takeaway is that these are the key levels to watch for a breakdown or breakout.
Does Moderna have a strong balance sheet?
Moderna has $5.14 billion in total cash and $1.29 billion in total debt. The takeaway is that cash exceeds debt, giving the company financial capacity to support its operations and research.
Related Stock Reports
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis and opinions expressed are those of AltStation.io and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Updated October 26, 2026.