ALTSTATION.IO

The AI Forecast Scorecard

We asked an AI to predict 496 stocks for a year, then scored it | Updated September 20, 2026

Companies Tested
496
Direction Accuracy
52.0%
Always-Up Baseline
62.7%
Beat Naive / Did Not
259 / 237

The five worst misses

APP
predicted $1,088.81
actual $323.96
off by 236%
TTD
predicted $40.23
actual $14.34
off by 181%
CSGP
predicted $69.95
actual $30.46
off by 130%
BSX
predicted $92.44
actual $42.98
off by 115%
LULU
predicted $210.52
actual $98.97
off by 113%

Every company, every forecast


Showing all 496 coins

We asked Amazon’s forecasting model to predict the 2026 price of
all 496 S&P 500 companies. It got the direction right
52.0% of the time. Simply assuming every stock
would go up would have been right 62.7% of the time.

What we did

We gave Chronos-2, Amazon’s open time-series model, two full years of daily closing
prices for every S&P 500 company — 2024 and 2025, 502 trading days. We asked
it to forecast every session of 2026. Then we waited and scored it against what
actually happened.

The method was fixed before any result was read.
Model, input window, horizon, baseline and scoring rules were all written down in
advance. That matters: it is the difference between a test and a story told after the
fact. Nothing was tuned once the outcomes were visible.

What happened

  • 52.0% direction accuracy against a
    62.7% base rate. The model was worse than a constant.
  • 52.2% beat the naive baseline — a coin flip.
    The baseline was simply “the price stays where it ended 2025”.
  • Median miss of 15.1% on the final price.
  • 65.7% band coverage against an advertised 80%.
    When the model said it was 80% confident, it was right about
    66% of the time.

The tails are where it gets vivid. The worst miss was off by more than 200%. At the
other end the model landed within a fraction of a percent on NI (off by 0.01%), HIG (off by 0.13%), PH (off by 0.13%) —
across nine months, which looks like skill until you notice it happened about as often
as chance would predict across 496 attempts.

What this is not. This is not a claim that AI
cannot forecast markets, and it is not investment advice. It is one well-specified model,
run one way, scored honestly. It is a useful corrective to the idea that pointing a
large model at a price series produces insight.

Symbol Name Last 2025 close Predicted Actual Off by Direction right Beat naive
APP Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock $673.82 $1,088.81 $323.96 236.1% no no
TTD The Trade Desk, Inc. $37.96 $40.23 $14.34 180.5% no no
CSGP CoStar Group Inc $67.24 $69.95 $30.46 129.6% no no
BSX Boston Scientific Corp. $95.35 $92.44 $42.98 115.1% yes yes
LULU lululemon athletica inc. $207.81 $210.52 $98.97 112.7% no no
PODD Insulet Corporation $284.24 $278.82 $131.96 111.3% yes yes
INTU Intuit Inc $656.26 $657.42 $321.57 104.4% no no
ROL Rollins, Inc. $59.35 $62.58 $34.73 80.2% no no
MRNA Moderna, Inc. Common Stock $29.49 $29.25 $143.97 79.7% no no
DELL Dell Technologies Inc. $124.74 $115.47 $567.29 79.7% no no
FICO Fair Isaac Corporation $1,690.62 $1,758.69 $985.39 78.5% no no
ZTS ZOETIS INC. $123.88 $129.08 $72.97 76.9% no no
STX Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland) $274.71 $198.72 $830.17 76.1% no no
FIS Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. $64.41 $66.97 $38.14 75.6% no no
MU Micron Technology, Inc. $285.25 $247.81 $975.26 74.6% no yes
PNR Pentair plc $103.11 $96.84 $56.58 71.2% yes yes
NKE Nike, Inc. $62.07 $61.56 $36.80 67.3% yes yes
INTC Intel Corp $36.90 $34.71 $102.94 66.3% no no
WDC Western Digital Corp. $172.09 $156.06 $447.18 65.1% no no
MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. Common Stock $84.86 $82.80 $236.10 64.9% no no
APTV Aptiv PLC $76.09 $75.01 $45.54 64.7% yes yes
CHTR Charter Comm Inc Del CL A New $208.75 $237.68 $145.77 63.0% no no
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company $23.80 $23.28 $62.09 62.5% no no
LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock $368.59 $348.94 $927.03 62.4% no yes
BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. $102.89 $97.93 $60.37 62.2% yes yes
NRG NRG Energy, Inc. $157.70 $182.11 $113.46 60.5% no no
MPC MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION $160.76 $159.88 $395.93 59.6% no no
AMD Advanced Micro Devices $214.16 $211.71 $516.13 59.0% no no
VLO Valero Energy Corporation $160.42 $162.09 $390.42 58.5% yes yes
COO The Cooper Companies, Inc. Common Stock $81.96 $85.39 $53.91 58.4% no no
PSX PHILLIPS 66 $126.39 $126.46 $259.47 51.3% yes yes
CIEN Ciena Corporation $233.87 $171.24 $349.54 51.0% no yes
ACN Accenture PLC $262.88 $277.03 $183.90 50.6% no no
NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares $22.32 $22.21 $14.82 49.9% yes no
FIX Comfort Systems USA, Inc. $931.96 $853.35 $1,690.82 49.5% no yes
NTAP NetApp, Inc $105.71 $101.02 $199.28 49.3% no no
CRH CRH Public Limited Company $123.42 $131.80 $88.55 48.9% no no
GLW Corning Incorporated $87.10 $87.41 $166.40 47.5% yes yes
IT Gartner, Inc. $252.28 $264.28 $179.59 47.2% no no
TER Teradyne, Inc. Common Stock $193.33 $201.90 $379.72 46.8% yes yes
CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock $117.19 $112.41 $206.74 45.6% no no
PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Common Stock $184.20 $180.39 $330.65 45.4% no no
ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc. $566.36 $535.36 $369.15 45.0% yes yes
KEYS Keysight Technologies, Inc. $203.19 $188.43 $338.64 44.4% no no
FTNT Fortinet, Inc. $79.41 $87.12 $156.07 44.2% yes yes
FLEX Flex Ltd. Ordinary Shares $60.42 $64.66 $115.78 44.1% yes yes
COHR Coherent Corp. $184.57 $171.66 $305.37 43.8% no yes
TSCO Tractor Supply Co $49.05 $47.46 $33.01 43.8% yes yes
APA APA Corporation Common Stock $23.90 $25.20 $44.73 43.7% yes yes
CF CF Industries Holding, Inc. $76.22 $75.02 $133.07 43.6% no no
LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Class A $41.91 $37.23 $63.69 41.5% no no
DVA DaVita Inc. $113.61 $106.60 $181.55 41.3% no no
AMAT Applied Materials Inc $256.08 $268.38 $456.49 41.2% yes yes
HUM Humana Inc. $254.24 $242.52 $409.80 40.8% no no
DDOG Datadog, Inc. Class A Common Stock $135.99 $132.83 $221.21 40.0% no no
LRCX Lam Research Corp $170.85 $179.38 $298.22 39.9% yes yes
LDOS Leidos Holdings, Inc. $179.32 $178.23 $128.86 38.3% yes no
ADSK Autodesk Inc $296.01 $291.69 $212.40 37.3% yes yes
HPQ HP Inc. $21.45 $22.28 $35.48 37.2% yes yes
TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated $170.62 $168.96 $268.70 37.1% no no
TRMB Trimble Inc. Common Stock $78.35 $79.01 $57.66 37.0% no no
LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp. $63.97 $58.68 $42.83 37.0% yes yes
IDXX Idexx Laboratories Inc $676.53 $689.11 $504.70 36.5% no no
CNC Centene Corporation $41.15 $42.38 $66.42 36.2% yes yes
NUE Nucor Corporation $162.16 $165.81 $259.43 36.1% yes yes
VRT Vertiv Holdings Co Class A Common Stock $161.94 $164.68 $257.06 35.9% yes yes
TGT Target Corporation $95.13 $100.03 $155.83 35.8% yes yes
ADM Archer Daniels Midland Company $56.33 $56.13 $86.72 35.3% no no
STLD Steel Dynamics Inc $168.54 $155.51 $239.79 35.1% no no
VST Vistra Corp. $160.88 $96.32 $148.38 35.1% yes no
SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock $29.27 $26.04 $40.10 35.1% no no
PTC PTC, INC $174.21 $176.22 $130.78 34.8% no no
DECK Deckers Outdoor Corp $103.67 $109.46 $81.27 34.7% no no
CCL Carnival Corporation Ltd. $30.06 $30.57 $22.75 34.4% no no
CPRT Copart Inc $39.15 $40.22 $29.95 34.3% no no
FCX Freeport-McMoran Inc. $50.43 $47.34 $71.07 33.4% no no
CVX Chevron Corporation $148.27 $142.68 $214.06 33.4% no no
ANET Arista Networks $131.03 $133.28 $199.59 33.2% yes yes
TRGP Targa Resources Corp. $181.82 $194.38 $290.25 33.0% yes yes
DE Deere & Company $463.01 $453.84 $675.74 32.8% no no
DPZ Domino's Pizza Inc. $412.18 $413.88 $311.60 32.8% no no
VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. Common Stock $222.52 $233.64 $176.20 32.6% no no
TPL Texas Pacific Land Corporation $285.99 $249.52 $369.10 32.4% no no
JBHT JB Hunt Transport Services Inc $193.27 $182.90 $270.45 32.4% no no
TJX TJX Companies, Inc. (The) $152.20 $166.75 $126.02 32.3% no no
TYL Tyler Technologies, Inc. $453.95 $445.39 $336.67 32.3% yes yes
LII Lennox International Inc. $483.00 $483.12 $366.04 32.0% no no
EFX Equifax, Incorporated $215.03 $222.98 $169.00 31.9% no no
PWR Quanta Services, Inc. $421.80 $443.12 $650.58 31.9% yes yes
SWKS Skyworks Solutions Inc $62.12 $60.43 $88.35 31.6% no no
AXON Axon Enterprise, Inc. Common Stock $567.93 $630.43 $479.34 31.5% no no
MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated Non-VTG CS $66.90 $67.42 $51.32 31.4% no no
COP ConocoPhillips $91.59 $94.39 $137.35 31.3% yes yes
SLB SLB Limited $37.76 $38.56 $56.06 31.2% yes yes
ADI Analog Devices, Inc. $268.80 $260.83 $378.78 31.1% no no
PFG Principal Financial Group, Inc. $86.08 $80.02 $116.17 31.1% no no
OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation $40.55 $42.76 $61.46 30.4% yes yes
CRL Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. $199.48 $194.41 $278.26 30.1% no yes
STT State Street Corporation $126.69 $135.26 $193.40 30.1% yes yes
BAX Baxter International Inc. $19.08 $16.67 $23.80 30.0% no no
ETN Eaton Corporation, plc Ordinary Shares $315.87 $298.78 $425.37 29.8% no no
IRM Iron Mountain Inc. $81.72 $80.91 $115.18 29.8% no no
BR Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc $219.11 $217.29 $167.74 29.5% yes yes
CSX CSX Corporation $35.92 $34.57 $48.95 29.4% no no
WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd $119.46 $113.36 $87.70 29.3% yes yes
FDX FedEx Corporation $230.96 $221.38 $311.99 29.0% no no
KLAC KLA Corporation Common Stock $121.06 $128.82 $180.64 28.7% yes yes
BEN Franklin Templeton, Inc. $23.31 $24.00 $33.65 28.7% yes yes
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. $903.17 $881.60 $1,234.46 28.6% no no
CVNA Carvana Co. $84.40 $88.67 $69.16 28.2% no no
BF.B Brown-Forman Corporation Class B $25.38 $18.84 $26.22 28.2% no no
CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions $81.52 $76.90 $60.00 28.2% yes yes
ALB Albemarle Corporation $140.26 $150.58 $117.52 28.1% no yes
XOM ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation $117.97 $119.98 $165.99 27.7% yes yes
BG Bunge Global SA $87.49 $88.70 $122.41 27.5% yes yes
CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. Common Stock (DE) $75.92 $81.29 $112.13 27.5% yes yes
NTRS Northern Trust Corp $134.57 $137.49 $189.19 27.3% yes yes
GRMN Garmin Ltd $200.41 $205.73 $282.67 27.2% yes yes
WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. $176.73 $164.92 $226.23 27.1% no no
GEHC GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. Common Stock $81.90 $81.12 $63.93 26.9% yes yes
MRK Merck & Co., Inc. $103.74 $105.60 $143.93 26.6% yes yes
OTIS Otis Worldwide Corporation $85.91 $87.48 $69.10 26.6% no no
FANG Diamondback Energy, Inc. $147.81 $150.48 $204.97 26.6% yes yes
CAT Caterpillar Inc. $569.39 $602.14 $818.57 26.4% yes yes
GNRC GENERAC HOLDINGS INC $136.37 $137.84 $186.99 26.3% yes yes
LEN Lennar Corporation Class A $101.20 $100.41 $79.60 26.1% yes no
BKR Baker Hughes Company $45.05 $43.64 $59.06 26.1% no yes
SNPS Synopsys Inc $469.72 $500.72 $397.38 26.0% no no
BBY Best Buy Company, Inc. $65.06 $67.48 $90.80 25.7% yes no
CPAY Corpay, Inc. $300.93 $303.47 $408.22 25.7% yes yes
WAB Wabtec Inc. $212.71 $210.83 $283.22 25.6% no yes
EQIX Equinix, Inc. Common Stock REIT $754.65 $773.45 $1,037.72 25.5% yes yes
AKAM Akamai Technologies Inc $87.25 $79.60 $106.79 25.5% no no
DGX Quest Diagnostics Inc. $171.29 $175.49 $235.02 25.3% yes yes
ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation $242.82 $262.04 $350.37 25.2% yes yes
JBL Jabil Inc. $227.85 $238.15 $318.08 25.1% yes yes
EOG EOG Resources, Inc. $102.46 $110.67 $147.36 24.9% yes yes
INCY Incyte Genomics Inc $98.77 $91.24 $121.47 24.9% no no
EME EMCOR Group, Inc. $610.81 $586.63 $780.66 24.9% no yes
SYK Stryker Corporation $349.59 $343.85 $275.56 24.8% yes yes
NFLX NetFlix Inc $93.76 $96.34 $77.40 24.5% no no
OKE Oneok, Inc. $70.80 $73.03 $96.62 24.4% yes yes
DVN Devon Energy Corporation $36.18 $38.02 $50.23 24.3% yes yes
VTRS Viatris Inc. Common Stock $12.16 $12.51 $16.51 24.2% yes yes
KO Coca-Cola Company $68.99 $66.95 $88.29 24.2% no no
FISV Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock $67.17 $63.98 $51.58 24.1% yes yes
ON ON Semiconductor Corp $54.15 $57.87 $76.14 24.0% yes yes
VZ Verizon Communications $38.78 $38.49 $50.61 23.9% no no
AXP American Express Company $366.96 $401.84 $324.69 23.8% no no
ORCL Oracle Corp $193.05 $185.66 $150.28 23.6% yes yes
DOC Healthpeak Properties, Inc. $15.39 $15.52 $20.30 23.5% yes yes
HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. $335.99 $345.25 $279.69 23.4% no no
TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. $207.35 $234.84 $190.31 23.4% no no
ROST Ross Stores Inc $179.06 $176.80 $230.74 23.4% no no
BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock $212.68 $214.52 $173.92 23.3% no no
NDSN Nordson Corp $238.30 $241.08 $314.47 23.3% yes yes
MET MetLife, Inc. $77.30 $74.57 $97.14 23.2% no no
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Software Inc $256.03 $265.52 $215.47 23.2% no no
HST Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. $16.90 $17.08 $22.24 23.2% yes yes
EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. $148.25 $148.02 $192.60 23.1% no no
IBM International Business Machines Corporation $290.30 $298.92 $243.29 22.9% no no
GIS General Mills, Inc. $44.33 $44.01 $35.85 22.8% yes yes
FOX Fox Corporation Class B Common Stock $64.27 $71.73 $58.45 22.7% no no
AMGN Amgen Inc $320.75 $291.75 $377.35 22.7% no no
URI United Rentals, Inc. $804.45 $768.38 $989.12 22.3% no no
SYF SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL $82.40 $92.91 $75.99 22.3% no no
GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. $1,003.15 $996.86 $1,280.00 22.1% no no
FOXA Fox Corporation Class A Common Stock $72.39 $80.49 $65.94 22.1% no no
TT Trane Technologies plc $386.47 $344.93 $442.52 22.1% no no
ADBE Adobe Inc. $349.99 $307.46 $252.23 21.9% yes yes
PCG PG&E Corporation $15.98 $16.79 $13.80 21.7% no yes
HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. Class A Common Stock $113.10 $136.95 $112.57 21.7% no no
NVDA Nvidia Corp $186.06 $171.02 $218.29 21.6% no no
MLM Martin Marietta Materials $620.00 $620.26 $509.96 21.6% no yes
ALL The Allstate Corporation $205.16 $198.91 $253.71 21.6% no no
DOW Dow Inc. $22.61 $22.78 $29.03 21.5% yes no
APH Amphenol Corporation $67.34 $66.02 $83.92 21.3% no no
LH Labcorp Holdings Inc. $249.03 $245.42 $311.54 21.2% no no
VRSN VeriSign Inc $240.70 $230.67 $292.71 21.2% no no
ABNB Airbnb, Inc. Class A Common Stock $135.72 $134.57 $170.19 20.9% no no
UNP Union Pacific Corp. $227.87 $225.53 $284.40 20.7% no no
ERIE Erie Indemnity Co $281.91 $295.48 $245.03 20.6% no no
JNJ Johnson & Johnson $203.67 $211.00 $265.58 20.6% yes yes
TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company Class B $45.13 $46.89 $38.93 20.5% no no
IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock $64.12 $72.72 $91.37 20.4% yes yes
WDAY Workday, Inc. Class A Common Stock $214.78 $223.63 $185.70 20.4% no no
STE STERIS plc $251.36 $253.64 $210.76 20.3% no no
SJM The J.M. Smucker Company $94.89 $96.52 $121.14 20.3% yes yes
RVTY Revvity, Inc. $96.56 $99.07 $124.31 20.3% yes yes
ALGN Align Technology Inc $156.15 $181.25 $150.82 20.2% no yes
DLR Digital Realty Trust, Inc. $152.65 $150.86 $188.58 20.0% no no
CDW CDW Corporation $134.08 $123.17 $153.79 19.9% no no
AOS A.O. Smith Corporation $65.78 $68.79 $57.39 19.9% no no
XYL Xylem Inc $134.68 $128.08 $106.96 19.8% yes yes
WMT Walmart Inc. Common Stock $110.71 $128.18 $107.15 19.6% no no
HAL Halliburton Company $27.88 $28.83 $35.84 19.6% yes yes
LMT Lockheed Martin Corp. $475.07 $421.88 $524.19 19.5% no no
ABT Abbott Laboratories $123.00 $121.82 $101.95 19.5% yes yes
COF Capital One Financial $239.56 $248.86 $208.30 19.5% no no
WMB Williams Companies Inc. $58.82 $58.71 $72.85 19.4% no yes
TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. $286.82 $302.50 $375.20 19.4% yes yes
MCD McDonald's Corporation $299.75 $301.12 $252.53 19.2% no no
BNY Bank of New York Mellon Corporation $114.57 $131.55 $162.66 19.1% yes yes
NVR NVR, Inc. $7,292.77 $7,306.17 $6,160.76 18.6% no no
DASH DoorDash, Inc. Class A Common Stock $226.48 $239.18 $201.95 18.4% no no
LOW Lowe's Companies Inc. $237.47 $233.03 $196.82 18.4% yes yes
ARES Ares Management Corporation Class A Common Stock $157.87 $155.82 $131.64 18.4% yes no
SPGI S&P Global Inc. $491.01 $485.82 $410.71 18.3% yes yes
BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. $52.18 $52.16 $63.64 18.0% no yes
SBUX Starbucks Corp $82.71 $81.16 $98.74 17.8% no yes
HSIC Henry Schein Inc $75.58 $72.70 $88.36 17.7% no no
CVS CVS HEALTH CORPORATION $77.55 $77.89 $94.66 17.7% yes yes
UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B $94.69 $82.52 $100.28 17.7% no no
SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. $72.06 $73.48 $89.24 17.6% yes yes
CEG Constellation Energy Corporation Common Stock $351.71 $334.97 $284.75 17.6% yes yes
CCI Crown Castle Inc. $86.76 $88.88 $75.62 17.5% no no
CTVA Corteva, Inc. Common Stock $66.58 $69.35 $83.90 17.3% yes yes
IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. $66.64 $69.11 $83.61 17.3% yes yes
LHX L3Harris Technologies, Inc. $289.98 $288.07 $245.54 17.3% yes no
ROP Roper Technologies, Inc. Common Stock $441.98 $455.68 $388.52 17.3% no no
WST West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. $274.50 $286.48 $346.23 17.3% yes yes
MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. New $381.17 $385.73 $466.16 17.2% yes yes
FAST Fastenal Co $39.48 $40.85 $49.32 17.2% yes yes
TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated $1,329.85 $1,333.91 $1,140.32 17.0% no yes
ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. $47.55 $42.51 $51.14 16.9% no no
HRL Hormel Foods Corporation $22.80 $24.03 $20.57 16.8% no yes
KKR KKR & Co. Inc. $126.76 $118.06 $101.08 16.8% yes yes
IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. $225.41 $217.96 $261.77 16.7% no yes
PCAR Paccar Inc $108.60 $102.29 $122.73 16.6% no no
AON Aon plc Class A $351.15 $353.06 $302.69 16.6% no no
AIZ Assurant, Inc. $238.32 $235.76 $282.46 16.5% no no
TECH Bio-Techne Corp. $58.56 $60.28 $72.12 16.4% yes no
GL Globe Life Inc. $139.00 $143.18 $171.17 16.4% yes yes
TPR Tapestry, Inc. Common Stock $126.59 $137.73 $118.49 16.2% no yes
TSLA Tesla, Inc. Common Stock $449.72 $424.78 $365.44 16.2% yes yes
IVZ Invesco LTD $25.69 $27.05 $32.28 16.2% yes yes
USB U.S. Bancorp $52.37 $52.74 $62.84 16.1% yes yes
EIX Edison International $57.76 $64.96 $56.00 16.0% no yes
FFIV F5, Inc. Common Stock $255.26 $345.89 $411.71 16.0% yes yes
PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock $13.27 $12.28 $10.60 15.9% yes yes
IEX IDEX Corporation $176.09 $188.66 $224.21 15.9% yes yes
COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. Class A Common Stock $226.14 $202.87 $175.26 15.8% yes no
KHC The Kraft Heinz Company Common Stock $23.06 $20.73 $24.60 15.7% no no
XYZ Block, Inc. $65.09 $66.90 $79.21 15.6% yes yes
MTB M&T Bank Corp. $197.42 $202.59 $239.83 15.5% yes yes
NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. Common Stock $96.15 $105.23 $91.19 15.4% no no
EXE Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock $108.45 $109.42 $94.83 15.4% no no
DHR Danaher Corporation $227.96 $230.40 $200.14 15.1% no no
STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. $135.09 $140.90 $122.45 15.1% no no
EMR Emerson Electric Co. $131.23 $129.29 $152.19 15.1% no no
KIM Kimco Realty Corp. $19.60 $19.70 $23.19 15.1% yes yes
ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock $605.01 $628.48 $546.78 14.9% no no
CBRE CBRE GROUP, INC. $160.79 $161.49 $140.51 14.9% no no
PNC PNC Financial Services Group $203.94 $207.80 $244.24 14.9% yes yes
LYV Live Nation Entertainment Inc. $142.50 $144.77 $170.15 14.9% yes yes
WAT Waters Corp $379.83 $348.67 $408.34 14.6% no yes
APD Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. $242.20 $248.99 $291.43 14.6% yes yes
PRU Prudential Financial, Inc. $108.62 $102.00 $119.24 14.5% no no
PFE Pfizer Inc. $23.68 $23.72 $27.72 14.4% yes yes
FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust $97.71 $97.85 $114.36 14.4% yes yes
AZO AutoZone, Inc. $3,391.50 $3,290.65 $2,876.75 14.4% yes yes
WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. Series A Common Stock $28.82 $32.07 $28.04 14.4% no no
AMP Ameriprise Financial, Inc. $485.60 $477.70 $557.61 14.3% no no
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. $79.10 $75.62 $66.19 14.2% yes yes
IP International Paper Co. $37.99 $39.25 $34.36 14.2% no no
BDX Becton, Dickinson and Co. $149.66 $152.83 $177.85 14.1% yes yes
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp $46.06 $47.05 $54.72 14.0% yes yes
WELL Welltower Inc. $183.63 $202.76 $235.62 13.9% yes yes
COST Costco Wholesale Corp $858.55 $779.38 $904.77 13.9% no no
PSA Public Storage $254.52 $255.42 $296.50 13.9% yes yes
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc $453.36 $444.53 $515.44 13.8% no no
CTAS Cintas Corp $186.64 $173.91 $201.50 13.7% no no
FDS Factset Research Systems $286.22 $295.11 $259.71 13.6% no no
GPN Global Payments, Inc. $76.64 $76.27 $88.29 13.6% no no
TDY Teledyne Technologies Incorporated $510.73 $521.58 $603.79 13.6% yes yes
KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. $26.73 $26.68 $30.86 13.5% no yes
NEM Newmont Corporation $99.21 $109.72 $126.81 13.5% yes yes
SNA Snap-on Incorporated $338.00 $325.43 $375.44 13.3% no no
AME Ametek, Inc. $204.68 $209.68 $241.87 13.3% yes yes
DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. Common Stock $119.12 $110.15 $126.99 13.3% no no
MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. Class A $52.92 $54.19 $62.44 13.2% yes yes
RSG Republic Services Inc. $210.09 $193.31 $222.74 13.2% no no
PM Philip Morris International Inc. $157.67 $165.88 $191.06 13.2% yes yes
HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc. $465.23 $483.12 $426.94 13.2% no no
CLX Clorox Company $97.35 $99.26 $87.76 13.1% no no
MO Altria Group, Inc. $55.87 $59.97 $68.98 13.1% yes yes
SYY Sysco Corporation $72.12 $72.40 $83.21 13.0% yes yes
DLTR Dollar Tree Inc. $123.01 $133.30 $118.17 12.8% no no
EL The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A $103.64 $109.52 $97.12 12.8% no no
TEL TE Connectivity plc $225.06 $238.95 $211.96 12.7% no no
VEEV Veeva Systems Inc. $223.23 $229.15 $262.40 12.7% yes no
AAPL Apple Inc. $271.12 $290.45 $332.27 12.6% yes yes
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. $37.00 $40.67 $36.20 12.3% no no
NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. $285.08 $280.86 $320.27 12.3% no no
ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line $156.14 $157.77 $179.79 12.2% yes yes
ABBV ABBVIE INC. $223.21 $225.79 $257.12 12.2% yes yes
PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A Common Stock $177.75 $187.59 $167.23 12.2% no no
EG Everest Group, Ltd. $333.43 $326.66 $371.71 12.1% no no
RJF Raymond James Financial, Inc. $158.89 $152.50 $173.46 12.1% no no
GEN Gen Digital Inc. Common Stock $26.78 $26.62 $30.26 12.0% no no
BIIB Biogen Inc. Common Stock $175.99 $191.43 $217.15 11.8% yes yes
FERG Ferguson Enterprises Inc. $219.25 $196.55 $222.54 11.7% no no
PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corporation $86.28 $84.96 $96.10 11.6% no no
T AT&T Inc. $23.98 $23.05 $26.06 11.5% no no
BX Blackstone Inc. $149.45 $143.32 $128.51 11.5% yes yes
AMZN Amazon.Com Inc $230.82 $227.37 $256.78 11.4% no no
REG Regency Centers Corporation $67.04 $66.14 $74.62 11.4% no no
CL Colgate-Palmolive Company $77.61 $77.05 $86.80 11.2% no no
GD General Dynamics Corporation $332.28 $316.43 $355.90 11.1% no no
FSLR First Solar, Inc. $261.23 $185.94 $209.03 11.0% yes yes
CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. $57.22 $62.78 $70.48 10.9% yes yes
PKG Packaging Corp of America $203.68 $208.79 $234.40 10.9% yes yes
CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. $83.07 $83.89 $94.15 10.9% yes yes
CRM Salesforce, Inc. $263.57 $274.46 $247.72 10.8% no no
D Dominion Energy, Inc Common Stock $56.82 $57.44 $64.36 10.8% yes yes
MCHP Microchip Technology Inc $62.65 $66.23 $74.20 10.7% yes yes
NWSA News Corporation Class A Common Stock $25.92 $26.33 $29.44 10.6% yes yes
AIG American International Group, Inc. $84.49 $83.20 $75.33 10.4% yes yes
DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. $179.81 $188.09 $209.89 10.4% yes yes
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc $768.90 $862.21 $781.49 10.3% yes no
ED Consolidated Edison, Inc. $96.93 $95.50 $106.46 10.3% no no
CAH Cardinal Health, Inc. $204.05 $210.55 $234.57 10.2% yes yes
VMC Vulcan Materials Company(Holding Company) $283.59 $278.61 $252.74 10.2% yes no
CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc. $249.17 $252.69 $281.04 10.1% yes yes
RL Ralph Lauren Corporation $351.78 $373.22 $339.09 10.1% no yes
A Agilent Technologies Inc. $135.26 $132.38 $146.93 9.9% no yes
RF Regions Financial Corp. $26.32 $27.15 $30.13 9.9% yes yes
VICI VICI Properties Inc. Common Stock $27.21 $27.27 $24.83 9.8% no no
JKHY Henry (Jack) & Associates $180.35 $176.91 $161.12 9.8% yes yes
CB Chubb Limited $309.30 $305.15 $338.25 9.8% no no
SW Smurfit Westrock plc $37.56 $39.00 $43.22 9.8% yes yes
HD Home Depot, Inc. $336.79 $338.67 $308.74 9.7% no no
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. $578.30 $551.37 $609.82 9.6% no yes
GILD Gilead Sciences Inc $121.25 $130.10 $143.72 9.5% yes yes
GPC Genuine Parts Company $119.60 $121.11 $133.68 9.4% yes yes
EVRG Evergy, Inc. $70.70 $74.03 $81.62 9.3% yes yes
UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. $81.71 $78.27 $71.67 9.2% yes yes
ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. $243.28 $243.81 $268.16 9.1% yes yes
NOW SERVICENOW, INC. $153.19 $144.54 $132.53 9.1% yes yes
J Jacobs Solutions Inc. $131.38 $129.06 $141.85 9.0% no yes
BALL Ball Corporation $52.45 $54.53 $59.90 9.0% yes yes
EBAY eBay Inc $86.31 $98.19 $107.75 8.9% yes yes
VMRK Vivmark Residential $60.97 $59.74 $65.54 8.8% no no
CARR Carrier Global Corporation $52.24 $52.42 $57.46 8.8% yes yes
DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. $68.86 $72.90 $79.91 8.8% yes yes
O Realty Income Corporation $54.46 $54.31 $59.50 8.7% no no
F Ford Motor Company $12.68 $12.76 $13.97 8.7% yes yes
NWS News Corporation Class B Common Stock $29.43 $29.88 $32.71 8.6% yes yes
WY Weyerhaeuser Company $23.07 $23.96 $22.06 8.6% no yes
NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. $215.21 $216.46 $236.62 8.5% yes yes
ESS Essex Property Trust, Inc $254.10 $249.75 $272.91 8.5% no no
QCOM Qualcomm Inc $168.42 $166.57 $181.97 8.5% no no
VTR Ventas, Inc. $76.44 $82.37 $89.99 8.5% yes yes
CMCSA Comcast Corp $27.00 $27.33 $25.20 8.4% no no
LIN Linde plc Ordinary Share $422.23 $426.83 $466.22 8.4% yes yes
JCI Johnson Controls International plc $119.05 $133.72 $146.01 8.4% yes yes
ELV Elevance Health, Inc. $345.49 $383.56 $418.72 8.4% yes yes
WFC Wells Fargo & Co. $91.69 $97.67 $90.29 8.2% no no
ADP Automatic Data Processing $251.59 $246.42 $268.26 8.1% no yes
ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. $385.34 $393.51 $428.39 8.1% yes yes
PAYX Paychex Inc $108.49 $106.70 $115.80 7.9% no yes
MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. $134.13 $134.46 $124.79 7.8% no no
EW Edwards Lifesciences Corp $85.25 $90.86 $84.37 7.7% no no
ATO Atmos Energy Corporation $164.77 $175.73 $163.19 7.7% no yes
ECL Ecolab, Inc. $261.11 $254.97 $276.18 7.7% no no
MCO Moody's Corporation $507.46 $511.22 $474.95 7.6% no no
PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock $57.87 $57.78 $53.72 7.6% yes no
IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. Common Stock $79.16 $78.36 $72.93 7.5% yes no
TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. $199.82 $168.93 $182.33 7.3% yes yes
MS Morgan Stanley $174.65 $198.65 $214.38 7.3% yes yes
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. $256.46 $257.91 $240.32 7.3% no no
GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc. $866.32 $954.09 $1,029.18 7.3% yes yes
RMD ResMed Inc. $238.92 $234.12 $218.27 7.3% yes yes
AVY Avery Dennison Corp. $178.79 $181.62 $169.38 7.2% no no
HAS Hasbro, Inc. $80.18 $84.95 $91.54 7.2% yes yes
WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Ordinary Shares $326.32 $338.34 $315.61 7.2% no no
BA Boeing Company $217.12 $225.58 $210.45 7.2% no no
COR Cencora, Inc. $335.75 $344.65 $321.57 7.2% no no
AFL Aflac Inc. $108.58 $107.07 $115.28 7.1% no no
YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. $149.10 $150.87 $140.87 7.1% no yes
SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation $98.93 $99.98 $107.25 6.8% yes yes
WRB W.R. Berkley Corporation $69.41 $74.62 $69.90 6.8% yes no
C Citigroup Inc. $114.95 $129.64 $138.82 6.6% yes yes
MRSH Marsh $182.60 $188.63 $176.91 6.6% no no
AWK American Water Works Company, Inc $127.85 $128.67 $137.69 6.5% yes yes
AES AES Corporation $13.83 $13.83 $14.79 6.5% no yes
KEY KeyCorp $20.05 $20.42 $21.84 6.5% yes yes
MGM MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL $36.49 $37.31 $39.89 6.5% yes yes
KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. $27.34 $29.38 $31.39 6.4% yes yes
ECHO EchoStar Corporation $108.70 $99.02 $93.14 6.3% yes yes
SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. $179.09 $192.17 $204.83 6.2% yes yes
GE GE Aerospace $307.20 $343.60 $323.66 6.2% yes yes
MAS Masco Corporation $62.61 $64.33 $68.52 6.1% yes yes
PG Procter & Gamble Company $140.19 $136.42 $145.27 6.1% no no
UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED (Delaware) $325.70 $356.05 $379.09 6.1% yes yes
PLD PROLOGIS, INC. $125.73 $127.81 $135.75 5.8% yes yes
BAC Bank of America Corporation $54.13 $59.07 $62.69 5.8% yes yes
AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc. $112.72 $116.27 $123.33 5.7% yes yes
DTE DTE Energy Company $126.96 $125.27 $132.58 5.5% no no
VLTO Veralto Corporation $99.48 $99.18 $94.10 5.4% yes yes
TROW T Rowe Price Group Inc $99.68 $100.58 $106.29 5.4% yes yes
DUK Duke Energy Corporation $114.22 $113.06 $119.42 5.3% no no
DG Dollar General Corp. $130.91 $131.13 $124.58 5.3% no no
MNST Monster Beverage Corporation $38.33 $41.12 $43.40 5.3% yes yes
MAR Marriott International Class A Common Stock $308.40 $317.12 $334.69 5.2% yes yes
CPT Camden Property Trust $107.90 $108.18 $103.01 5.0% no no
CDNS Cadence Design Systems $312.58 $303.62 $289.37 4.9% yes no
XEL Xcel Energy, Inc. $72.77 $71.79 $75.50 4.9% no no
ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. $91.21 $89.99 $85.82 4.8% yes no
HUBB Hubbell Incorporated $440.22 $438.39 $460.40 4.8% no yes
LNT Alliant Energy Corporation Common Stock $63.52 $64.08 $67.26 4.7% yes yes
NOC Northrop Grumman Corp. $563.34 $543.43 $518.97 4.7% yes no
SBAC SBA Communications Corp $189.66 $194.04 $185.47 4.6% no no
PPG PPG Industries, Inc. $100.59 $100.76 $105.50 4.5% yes no
TXT Textron, Inc. $87.11 $84.61 $81.00 4.5% yes no
AEE Ameren Corporation $97.80 $100.32 $104.90 4.4% yes yes
META Meta Platforms, Inc. Class A Common Stock $658.91 $676.18 $648.03 4.3% no no
MCK McKesson Corporation $817.83 $844.65 $881.51 4.2% yes no
PGR Progressive Corporation $213.91 $208.74 $217.62 4.1% no yes
PHM Pultegroup, Inc. $116.76 $113.46 $118.26 4.1% no no
MOS The Mosaic Company $23.45 $24.21 $25.19 3.9% yes no
FE FirstEnergy Corp. $43.46 $44.35 $46.13 3.9% yes yes
TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. $57.13 $55.03 $52.98 3.9% yes no
WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc. $102.79 $101.30 $105.33 3.8% no no
MMM 3M Company $157.87 $171.25 $164.97 3.8% yes no
PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated $78.26 $75.09 $72.39 3.7% yes yes
PEP PepsiCo, Inc. $139.28 $141.25 $136.32 3.6% no yes
EXR Extra Space Storage, Inc. $127.34 $132.83 $137.64 3.5% yes yes
KR The Kroger Co. $61.42 $60.53 $58.49 3.5% yes yes
LUV Southwest Airlines Co. $40.78 $37.89 $39.24 3.4% yes no
AMCR Amcor plc Ordinary Shares $39.91 $40.88 $42.32 3.4% yes yes
L Loews Corporation $105.13 $112.47 $108.79 3.4% yes yes
EQT EQT CORP $53.13 $52.27 $54.07 3.3% no yes
V VISA Inc. $348.62 $358.18 $370.45 3.3% yes no
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. $158.98 $157.79 $152.78 3.3% yes yes
SO The Southern Company $85.11 $84.33 $87.17 3.3% no no
BRK.B BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY Class B $502.65 $494.31 $510.37 3.1% no yes
NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. $78.57 $79.76 $82.31 3.1% yes yes
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Class C Capital Stock $313.19 $345.80 $335.45 3.1% yes yes
ES Eversource Energy $65.84 $66.44 $68.52 3.0% yes yes
DXCM DexCom, Inc. $66.37 $85.52 $83.03 3.0% yes yes
MTD Mettler-Toledo International $1,394.19 $1,331.29 $1,293.52 2.9% yes yes
MSFT Microsoft Corp $480.57 $481.46 $495.63 2.9% yes no
ZBH Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. $89.44 $90.82 $93.49 2.9% yes yes
SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company $321.74 $314.32 $323.31 2.8% no no
DOV Dover Corporation $193.80 $194.24 $189.05 2.7% no yes
EXC Exelon Corporation $42.41 $42.04 $43.16 2.6% no no
DIS The Walt Disney Company $112.90 $109.30 $106.55 2.6% yes yes
CI The Cigna Group $270.64 $287.96 $280.76 2.6% yes yes
APO Apollo Global Management, Inc. $142.96 $132.25 $128.98 2.5% yes yes
UDR UDR, Inc. $35.54 $35.98 $35.12 2.4% no yes
CNP CenterPoint Energy, Inc. $37.70 $38.17 $39.11 2.4% yes yes
HWM Howmet Aerospace Inc. $204.71 $235.07 $229.61 2.4% yes yes
ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd $95.92 $93.84 $96.09 2.4% no no
UHS Universal Health Services, Inc. Class B $217.25 $178.79 $174.83 2.3% yes yes
HBAN Huntington Bancshares Inc $17.02 $17.23 $16.86 2.2% no no
RCL Royal Caribbean Group $276.01 $265.86 $260.14 2.2% yes no
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. $286.85 $299.56 $306.19 2.2% yes yes
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock $312.39 $345.65 $338.50 2.1% yes yes
CASY Casey's General Stores Inc $551.40 $602.79 $615.47 2.1% yes yes
BLK Blackrock, Inc. $1,053.05 $1,057.88 $1,079.65 2.0% yes no
ETR Entergy Corporation $90.79 $107.45 $105.33 2.0% yes yes
AMT American Tower Corporation $172.19 $174.27 $177.85 2.0% yes yes
MDT Medtronic plc $94.43 $92.74 $90.96 2.0% yes yes
KMB Kimberly-Clark Corp. $97.14 $100.03 $98.15 1.9% yes yes
MSCI MSCI, Inc. $567.39 $564.69 $554.61 1.8% yes no
TFC Truist Financial Corporation $47.74 $49.62 $50.40 1.6% yes yes
OMC Omnicom Group Inc. $79.11 $80.17 $79.01 1.5% no no
GDDY GoDaddy Inc $124.08 $96.68 $98.07 1.4% yes yes
HSY The Hershey Company $178.01 $175.77 $173.32 1.4% yes no
EXPE Expedia Group, Inc. Common Stock $281.69 $284.73 $280.83 1.4% no no
CMI Cummins Inc. $505.27 $564.20 $556.75 1.3% yes yes
DHI D.R. Horton Inc. $142.76 $139.72 $137.89 1.3% yes no
ICE Intercontinental Exchange Inc. $160.84 $155.38 $157.40 1.3% yes yes
KVUE Kenvue Inc. $16.67 $17.56 $17.78 1.2% yes yes
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corp $161.48 $171.65 $169.80 1.1% yes yes
WM Waste Management, Inc. $216.94 $211.38 $213.46 1.0% yes no
ALLE Allegion Public Limited Company $157.97 $154.72 $153.35 0.9% yes yes
RTX RTX Corporation $181.43 $195.95 $197.68 0.9% yes yes
PPL PPL Corporation $34.20 $34.38 $34.08 0.9% no yes
GM General Motors Company $80.79 $84.90 $85.62 0.8% yes no
HON Honeywell International, Inc. $201.87 $201.03 $202.36 0.7% no no
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. $317.71 $354.15 $356.23 0.6% yes no
CMS CMS Energy Corporation $68.32 $67.53 $67.15 0.6% yes no
SRE Sempra $87.06 $82.95 $83.34 0.5% yes no
BXP BXP, Inc. $65.87 $64.92 $64.70 0.3% yes yes
UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Common Stock $111.82 $109.46 $109.82 0.3% yes no
FTV Fortive Corporation $55.03 $54.86 $54.69 0.3% yes yes
LLY Eli Lilly & Co. $1,069.51 $1,113.69 $1,115.70 0.2% yes yes
INVH Invitation Homes Inc. Common Stock $27.18 $27.59 $27.54 0.2% yes yes
AVGO Broadcom Inc. Common Stock $344.83 $362.58 $361.99 0.2% yes yes
MA Mastercard Incorporated $568.09 $570.10 $569.19 0.2% yes no
CME CME Group Inc. $264.09 $275.93 $275.54 0.1% yes yes
HIG The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. $135.97 $136.19 $136.36 0.1% yes yes
PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation $873.59 $949.00 $950.23 0.1% yes yes
NI NiSource Inc. $40.94 $41.41 $41.41 0.0% yes yes

Method and limits

Model: Chronos-2 (Apache-2.0), raw price, nine quantiles. Input: daily closes,
2024-01-01 to 2025-12-31, 502 bars. Horizon: every session from the first 2026 bar
onward. Baseline: naive, flat at the final 2025 close. Scored on mean absolute error
versus naive, final-close error, direction, and 10-90 band coverage.

Direction accuracy is not profit, and no trading costs are modelled. A model can be
directionally right and still lose money after spread and slippage. We used Chronos-2
rather than Google’s TimesFM because TimesFM’s weights are licensed
non-commercially.

The analysis was AI-assisted. The underlying per-symbol results are reproducible from
the published method, and we would rather be corrected than be vague.

About This Page

An open test of whether a large time-series model can forecast stock prices. Chronos-2 was given two years of daily closes for every S&P 500 company and asked to predict 2026. The method was frozen before any outcome was read. Results below are the full per-symbol scorecard, not a selected sample.

Real Crypto S&P 500 Rankings Market Hours

Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; market data may be delayed. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Last updated September 20, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC