ALTSTATION.IO

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Analysis

By Nova Skye | AltStation.io | Updated February 07, 2026

Price

$40.20

Change

-1.63%

Market Cap

$15.71B

Avg Volume

11.6M

Company Overview

Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, specializing in messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines. They develop a range of vaccines targeting infectious diseases like COVID-19, RSV, and influenza, alongside therapies for cancer and rare diseases. Their key customers include healthcare providers, government agencies, and global health organizations looking to combat various health threats.

Moderna is currently a market leader in the mRNA vaccine space, particularly recognized for its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. The company enjoys a significant advantage due to its cutting-edge technology platform and extensive partnerships with industry giants like AstraZeneca and Merck. Nevertheless, competition is fierce, with rivals like Pfizer and BioNTech also making strides in mRNA technology and traditional vaccine development posing a constant threat.

Right now, Moderna is in a phase of strategic pivoting. After the explosive growth from COVID-19 vaccine sales, they are expanding their pipeline to include other infectious disease vaccines and oncology treatments. Recent milestones include advancing several candidates, such as the RSV vaccine in late-stage trials, showcasing their adaptability in a post-pandemic landscape. Their continual investment in innovation will be critical for sustaining growth beyond COVID-19.

Key Financials

Market Cap

$15.71B

Revenue

$2.23B

EBITDA

-$3.26B

Gross Margin

-107.6%

Profit Margin

-139.6%

Revenue Growth

-45.4%

Total Cash

$4.50B

Total Debt

$734.00M

Free Cash Flow

-$1.98B

52-Week Price Performance Analysis

Price Statistics

P/E Ratio

N/A

Forward P/E

-5.88

Beta

1.34

52-Week High

$55.20

52-Week Low

$22.28

EPS

$-8.06

50-Day Avg

$34.75

200-Day Avg

$28.92

Price/Book

1.68

Technical Analysis

Over the past 52 weeks, Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) has exhibited a general upward trend, with a notable increase from a low of approximately $25 in May to recent highs around $41.01 in February. The stock has established key support around the $30 level, indicated by multiple bounces throughout the year, while resistance appears at the $41 mark, which it recently tested but struggled to maintain. The price chart reveals a bullish formation in the last few months, particularly from December to February, where sharp price increases suggest strong buying momentum. In recent weeks, the stock has shown volatility but recently stabilized around $40.20, indicating some consolidation before making another potential move. Currently, at $40.20, the stock is near the upper range of its 52-week spectrum and implies a solid position for possible continued upward movement or a potential pullback if resistance holds.

Recent News and Developments

Here’s a roundup of the latest news and developments for Moderna, Inc

(MRNA) stock over the past week:

1. Moderna Gears Up for Q4 2025 Earnings Report

Moderna is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2025 financial results before the market opens on Friday, February 13, 2026. Analysts are anticipating a loss of ($2.79) per share on revenue of $611.14 million for the quarter. The company previously reported ($0.51) EPS in its last quarterly earnings on November 6, 2025, surpassing analyst estimates.

2. Analyst Actions: UBS Downgrade and Barclays Coverage Resumption

UBS downgraded Moderna’s stock to “Hold” from “Buy” on January 7, 2026, lowering its price target to $34 from $40, citing concerns about the company’s nearly flat revenue outlook and the need for a new blockbuster product. More recently, on January 28, 2026, Barclays resumed coverage of Moderna with an “Equal Weight” rating and a $25 price target.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations

Bull Case

Moderna has $4.5B in cash against only $734M in debt, giving it a fortress balance sheet to fund pipeline development without dilution. The mRNA-1010 flu vaccine filing across FDA, EMA, and other major regulators represents a real commercial opportunity in a market that moves billions annually, and the Phase 3 data showing 26.6% relative efficacy gives it a legitimate shot at approval. The Recordati partnership for mRNA-3927 brings $160M in near-term milestones plus royalties without Moderna bearing full commercialization risk, which is exactly the capital-efficient model this company needs. At $40.20 with a $15.7B market cap, Moderna trades at a reasonable price given its pipeline depth and cash position, especially if even one late-stage asset reaches the market. The stock’s 42.8% monthly rally into February suggests institutional money is rotating back into biotech after the January selloff, and the technical setup near $41 resistance could break higher if earnings surprise.

Bear Case

Revenue collapsed 45.4% year-over-year, and Q4 guidance of $611M quarterly revenue is abysmal for a company that once dominated the mRNA space. Analysts expect a $2.79 loss per share in Q4, and the company is unprofitable, which means cash burn will eventually matter even with $4.5B on hand. UBS and Barclays both downgraded or initiated coverage with cautious ratings and price targets below current levels, citing flat revenue outlook and the absence of a new blockbuster product. CEO Bancel’s admission that Moderna won’t invest in new late-stage vaccine trials due to anti-vax sentiment in the U.S. is a red flag about market headwinds and suggests the company sees limited ROI in its core vaccine business. The analyst target range is absurdly wide ($17 to $135), indicating zero consensus on valuation, and the consensus hold rating at $38.80 implies downside from current levels.

What to Watch

Q4 earnings hit on February 13, 2026 before market open–watch whether revenue actually comes in near $611M and whether management adjusts full-year 2026 guidance upward or downward. The mRNA-1010 flu vaccine regulatory timeline is critical; FDA approval could arrive within 6-12 months and would be the first material revenue driver since COVID. Monitor cash burn rate and operating expenses in the earnings call; if the company doesn’t show a clear path to profitability within 18-24 months, the balance sheet advantage evaporates. Track the stock’s ability to hold above $40 and break through the $41 resistance level–a sustained close above $42 would confirm the bullish momentum, while a drop below $35 would signal the bear case is winning. Watch for any new pipeline failures or clinical setbacks in the rare disease programs, which would validate concerns about execution risk and justify the wide analyst price target range.

Analyst Consensus

HOLD

Based on 20 analyst opinions

Low Target

$17.00

Mean Target

$38.80

High Target

$135.00

Earnings and Financial Data

Sector

Healthcare

Industry

Biotechnology

Employees

5,800

Earnings & Dividends

Next Earnings

Feb 13, 2026

EPS (Trailing)

$-8.06

Dividend Yield

None

Payout Ratio

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MRNA a good stock to buy?

Currently, Moderna (MRNA) is rated as a HOLD by analysts, with a target price of $38.80. Given its current price of $40.20, there’s limited upside potential in the near term.

What is MRNA’s price target?

Analysts have set a target price of $38.80 for Moderna. This suggests a slight downside from its current price and reflects cautious sentiment amid market conditions.

Does MRNA pay a dividend?

No, Moderna does not pay a dividend. Investors should be aware that their returns would rely solely on stock price appreciation rather than income from dividends.

What is MRNA’s P/E ratio?

Moderna’s P/E ratio is currently listed as N/A due to negative earnings, with a forward P/E of -5.88. This indicates potential challenges in profitability moving forward.

What is the 52-week range for MRNA stock?

The 52-week range for Moderna is $22.28 to $55.20. This volatility reflects the stock’s recent performance and highlights both its risk and potential for recovery.

Related Stock Reports

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis and opinions expressed are those of AltStation.io and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Updated February 07, 2026.