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Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis

By Nova Skye | AltStation.io | Updated October 14, 2026

Price
$588.32
Change
+1.61%
Market Cap
$25.16B
Avg Volume
577.2K

Company Overview

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is a specialty retailer operating in the Consumer Cyclical sector, headquartered in Bolingbrook, Illinois. The company sells branded and private-label cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, salon styling tools, and wellness goods. It serves everyday shoppers and beauty enthusiasts across the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait through brick-and-mortar stores, shop-in-shops, its mobile app, and Ulta.com. The core value proposition is straightforward: provide an all-in-one shopping destination that combines physical retail, digital ordering, and in-store salon services.

Ulta operates as a market leader in the specialty retail category with a clear competitive moat: its mass-to-prestige assortment. While key rival Sephora concentrates heavily on prestige beauty, Ulta carries both mass-market drugstore items and high-end cosmetics under one roof. That product mix allows Ulta to capture multiple price points in a single transaction, something department stores and discount retailers struggle to match. The biggest threat remains intensifying competition for prestige brand exclusives and aggressive retail expansion from Sephora.

The company is currently in an expansion phase, leveraging international partnerships and digital channels to move beyond its core domestic footprint. Originally incorporated in 1990 as ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, the business rebranded to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017 to reflect a broader retail identity. Today, management is scaling physical stores and shop-in-shops across the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait while driving digital volume through its app and Ulta.com. It is a calculated growth push to lock in consumer loyalty and defend its retail turf against encroaching competitors.

Key Financials
Market Cap
$25.16B
Revenue
$12.96B
EBITDA
$1.93B
Gross Margin
43.1%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Revenue Growth
8.9%
Total Cash
$213.45M
Total Debt
$2.52B
Free Cash Flow
$914.09M


52-Week Price Performance Analysis

Price Statistics
P/E Ratio
21.44
Forward P/E
18.34
Beta
0.84
52-Week High
$714.97
52-Week Low
$443.60
EPS
$27.44
50-Day Avg
$542.30
200-Day Avg
$554.29
Price/Book
9.53
ULTA 52-Week Stock Chart
Technical Analysis
ULTA trades at $588.32, 19.02% below its 52-week high of $714.97 and 30.52% above its 52-week low of $443.60. The stock sits 50% of the way through that 52-week range, so it is neither washed out nor near peak territory. Price is 5.22% above the 20-day moving average of $550.29, backed by gains of 5.79% over five trading days and 6.37% over 20 trading days. Near-term support is $530.52, while the stated 30-day resistance level is $579.00. With price now above $579.00, buyers need to hold that breakout to keep the short-term trend constructive.


Recent News and Developments

Ulta foundation approaches $100 million in donations

Ulta Beauty said its charitable foundation will reach nearly $100 million in total donations by year-end after giving $86 million over its first decade. The foundation raised $2 million with the Rare Impact Fund and $3.2 million through its first in-store fundraising program in 2026. Source: Ulta Beauty

Weiss Ratings gives ULTA a modest upgrade

Weiss Ratings upgraded ULTA from Hold (C) to Hold (C+) on October 8. This is a minor confidence bump, not a bullish call, because the stock remains rated Hold. Source: MarketBeat

ULTA gains 7.9% in one week

ULTA rose from a $545.48 close on October 7 to $588.75 during October 14 trading, a 7.9% increase. The strongest completed session was October 8, when the stock gained 3.43% and closed at $564.21. Source: StockAnalysis.com



Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations

Bull Case
Revenue is $12.96 billion and growing 8.9%, giving ULTA a solid operating base with meaningful expansion. The stock has positive momentum, rising 5.79% over five trading days and 6.37% over 20 trading days. At $588.32, ULTA remains 19.02% below its $714.97 high, leaving room for recovery without requiring a new record. The average analyst target is $631.44, and the top of the target range reaches $731.00. The consensus recommendation is buy across 25 analysts, which is a strong vote of confidence. A P/E of 21.44 is not cheap, but it is defensible if 8.9% revenue growth continues. The bull case is straightforward: continued growth plus sustained momentum could move the stock toward the analyst target.
Bear Case
ULTA carries $2.52 billion in total debt against just $213.45 million in cash. That balance limits financial flexibility and deserves attention even with revenue at $12.96 billion. The P/E of 21.44 requires the company to keep delivering growth; a slowdown from the current 8.9% revenue growth rate would weaken the valuation case. The analyst target range is unusually wide at $500.00 to $731.00, showing substantial disagreement about fair value. The low target of $500.00 sits below the current $588.32 price, so downside remains part of the analyst outlook. Momentum is strong, but the stock is already above its stated near-term resistance of $579.00, raising the risk of a failed breakout. A drop below the $550.29 moving average would weaken the short-term setup, while a move toward $530.52 would put support under direct pressure.
What to Watch
Watch whether ULTA can stay above the stated $579.00 near-term resistance after trading at $588.32. The next technical test is whether price continues holding above the 20-day moving average of $550.29. A move toward $530.52 would signal that the recent 5.79% five-day and 6.37% 20-day momentum has faded. Investors should track whether revenue growth remains near 8.9%, because the P/E of 21.44 leaves less room for weak execution. The average analyst target of $631.44 is the next major reference point, while $500.00 marks the bearish end of the target range. Weiss Ratings’ October 8 move from Hold (C) to Hold (C+) was modest, so a stronger ratings change would carry more weight. By year-end, the charitable foundation expects to approach $100 million in total donations, but the investment thesis still depends on growth, valuation and price execution.
Analyst Consensus
BUY

Based on 25 analyst opinions
Low Target
$500.00
Mean Target
$631.44
High Target
$731.00


Earnings and Financial Data

Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Specialty Retail
Employees
21,382
Earnings & Dividends
Next Earnings
Dec 03, 2026
EPS (Trailing)
$27.44
Dividend Yield
None
Payout Ratio
0%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is ULTA a good stock to buy?
The consensus recommendation is buy across 25 analysts, and revenue is growing 8.9%. The takeaway is that analysts are positive, but investors are paying a P/E of 21.44 for that growth.
What is ULTA’s price target?
The average analyst target is $631.44, with estimates ranging from $500.00 to $731.00. The takeaway is that the average target sits above the current $588.32 price, but analyst expectations vary widely.
Is ULTA stock overvalued?
ULTA trades at a P/E of 21.44 while reporting 8.9% revenue growth. The takeaway is that the valuation depends on continued growth and is not clearly cheap from the supplied data.
What are ULTA’s support and resistance levels?
Near-term support is $530.52, and the stated near-term resistance is $579.00. The takeaway is that the current $588.32 price is above resistance, while $530.52 is the key downside level.
How far is ULTA from its 52-week high?
ULTA is 19.02% below its 52-week high of $714.97 and 30.52% above its 52-week low of $443.60. The takeaway is that the stock sits exactly 50% of the way from its low to its high.

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Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis and opinions expressed are those of AltStation.io and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Updated October 14, 2026.