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Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Analysis

By Nova Skye | AltStation.io | Updated September 29, 2026

Price

$140.16

Change

+1.55%

Market Cap

$47.04B

Avg Volume

4.4M

Company Overview

Irving, Texas-based Vistra Corp. is an independent power producer in the utilities sector that generates and sells electricity and natural gas. The company serves roughly 5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers across the United States and the District of Columbia. Its operations run across five primary segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. Beyond direct retail power sales, the business handles wholesale electricity trading, fuel procurement, fuel logistics, and commodity risk management.

With roughly 44,000 megawatts of generation capacity, Vistra operates as a massive market heavyweight rather than a niche generator. Its core edge is a diversified power fleet that spans natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. Pairing that generation footprint with an integrated 5-million customer retail arm helps shield cash flows from wholesale power price swings. The primary drag on the business comes from legacy infrastructure, which requires active capital for mine reclamation, facility decommissioning, and site remediation.

Originally founded in 1882 and renamed from Vistra Energy Corp. in July 2020, the company is navigating a deliberate portfolio transition. Vistra continues to leverage its heavy baseload and nuclear fleet while expanding battery storage and solar to serve high-demand power grids. Simultaneously, its dedicated Asset Closure division methodically handles retired sites and environmental cleanups. This setup lets Vistra harvest cash from traditional power demand while systematically clearing out legacy liabilities.

Key Financials

Market Cap

$47.04B

Revenue

$19.21B

EBITDA

$6.65B

Gross Margin

38.3%

Profit Margin

11.6%

Revenue Growth

-5.5%

Total Cash

$435.00M

Total Debt

$20.51B

Free Cash Flow

$37.12M

52-Week Price Performance Analysis

Price Statistics

P/E Ratio

23.72

Forward P/E

13.52

Beta

1.41

52-Week High

$217.10

52-Week Low

$132.66

EPS

$5.91

50-Day Avg

$145.25

200-Day Avg

$155.51

Price/Book

15.67

Technical Analysis

VST trades at $140.16, just 7% of the way from its $132.26 52-week low to its $215.85 high. The stock is 36.06% below that high and only 4.36% above the low, putting it near the bottom of its annual range. Price is below the 20-day moving average of $142.39, with the technical data showing a 3.07% gap. Momentum is weak over five trading days at -1.96%, although the 20-day reading remains slightly positive at 0.84%. Near-term support is $135.44, while $151.47 is the resistance level buyers need to clear.

Recent News and Developments

Vistra locks in 20-year Texas data-center power deal

Vistra affiliate Luminant will supply 200 MW to 207 MW to New Era’s Texas Critical Data Center from Vistra’s 1,180 MW Odessa gas plant. Deliveries are expected to begin in the third quarter of 2027, and Vistra will receive a 5% non-voting interest in the project segment it powers. Source: Benzinga

Vistra completes $1.5 billion subordinated-note offering

Vistra Operations completed an $850 million Series A offering carrying a 7.000% rate and a $650 million Series B offering carrying a 7.250% rate. Both series mature in 2057 and are guaranteed by Vistra. Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

VST ends the week near $138 after a sharp Wednesday drop

VST fell 1.74% to $137.97 on September 23, then closed at $137.94 on September 24 and $138.46 on September 25. The stock finished September 28 at $138.02, down 0.32% for the session. Source: Stock Analysis

Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations

Bull Case

Vistra has $19.21 billion in revenue and a $47.04 billion market cap, giving it substantial operating scale. The 20-year Texas agreement adds a long-duration customer for 200 MW to 207 MW of power from Vistra’s 1,180 MW Odessa gas plant. Deliveries are expected to begin in the third quarter of 2027, and Vistra also receives a 5% non-voting interest in the project segment it powers. Wall Street remains firmly bullish, with a strong-buy recommendation across 19 analysts. The average analyst target is $217.58 versus the current $140.16 price, while the top target reaches $305.00. With VST sitting only 4.36% above its 52-week low, buyers are getting a much lower entry point than the $215.85 annual high.

Bear Case

Revenue growth is -5.5%, which directly challenges the idea that Vistra deserves an aggressive growth valuation. The stock still trades at 23.72 times earnings despite that revenue contraction. Total debt is $20.51 billion against only $435 million in cash, leaving the balance sheet heavily leveraged. The recent $1.5 billion subordinated-note offering carries rates of 7.000% and 7.250%, creating another meaningful financing obligation through 2057. Price action is also weak: VST is 36.06% below its 52-week high and has lost 1.96% over the last five trading days. Analyst opinion is not unanimous on valuation, with the lowest target at $106.00, well below the current $140.16 price.

What to Watch

The first technical test is whether VST can hold the $135.44 near-term support level. A break above the $142.39 20-day moving average would improve the short-term setup, but $151.47 remains the more important resistance threshold. Investors should watch whether the 20-day momentum reading can stay positive after reaching 0.84%, especially with five-day momentum at -1.96%. Revenue growth must improve from -5.5% for the fundamental story to support a 23.72 P/E ratio. Cash, currently $435 million, and debt, currently $20.51 billion, need close attention following the $1.5 billion subordinated-note offering. The Texas data-center agreement is a longer-term catalyst, so investors should track progress toward the planned third-quarter 2027 delivery start and the committed 200 MW to 207 MW supply range.

Analyst Consensus

STRONG BUY

Based on 19 analyst opinions

Low Target

$106.00

Mean Target

$217.58

High Target

$305.00

Earnings and Financial Data

Sector

Utilities

Industry

Utilities – Independent Power Producers

Employees

6,390

Earnings & Dividends

Next Earnings

Nov 05, 2026

EPS (Trailing)

$5.91

Dividend Yield

67.0%

Payout Ratio

15.3%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is VST a good stock to buy?

Nineteen analysts rate VST a strong buy, and their average target is $217.58 versus a current price of $140.16. Revenue growth is negative 5.5%, so the clear takeaway is that analyst conviction is strong but the operating trend needs improvement.

What is VST’s price target?

The average analyst target is $217.58, with estimates ranging from $106.00 to $305.00. The takeaway is that analysts see substantial potential but disagree sharply on fair value.

Is VST stock near its 52-week low?

VST is 4.36% above its $132.26 52-week low and sits only 7% of the way through its annual range. The takeaway is that the stock is trading near the bottom of that range.

What is VST’s valuation?

VST trades at a P/E ratio of 23.72 and has a market capitalization of $47.04 billion. The takeaway is that investors are paying a meaningful earnings multiple despite revenue growth of -5.5%.

How strong is Vistra’s balance sheet?

Vistra has $435 million in total cash and $20.51 billion in total debt. The takeaway is that debt is the clearest balance-sheet risk.

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Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis and opinions expressed are those of AltStation.io and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for investment decisions. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Updated September 29, 2026.