Investment Analysis Report: Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) - January 02, 2026

Company Overview

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, is a leading integrated downstream energy company in the United States. Operating within the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry, MPC is strategically positioned in the Energy sector. The company operates through three main segments: Refining & Marketing, which refines crude oil and distributes various refined products; Midstream, focusing on the transportation and storage of crude oil and natural gas; and Renewable Diesel, which processes renewable feedstocks into diesel fuel. Established in 1887, Marathon Petroleum serves both domestic and international markets, providing transportation fuels and other products through a network of branded outlets and long-term supply contracts.

In navigating the complexities of the energy market, Marathon Petroleum has adeptly positioned itself to capitalize on fluctuations in crude oil prices and the increasing demand for renewable energy solutions. This diversified approach has elevated its market standing and made it a relative stronghold within the sector.

52-Week Price Performance Analysis

52-Week Price Performance Chart

The 52-week stock price chart for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) reveals a predominantly bullish trend throughout the year, with notable price momentum leading up to December.

• Current Price: $162.63
• 52-Week High: $202.30
• 52-Week Low: $115.10

The stock experienced a consistent upward trajectory from January to November, where it achieved higher highs and higher lows, reflecting robust bullish sentiment. However, a downturn in December saw the price sharply decline, breaking below previous support levels which raises concerns about a potential reversal or correction in the trend.

Technical Analysis

1. Support and Resistance Levels:
2. Significant support has been noted around the $140 level, which was tested multiple times earlier in the year.

3. Resistance levels are identified near the $180-$190 range, where the stock encountered hurdles late in the year.

4. Moving Averages:

5. The current price is below the fifty-day moving average of $186.82, indicating a bearish trend. Historically, the price has fluctuated above this moving average, and the recent crossing below it signals a possible shift in momentum.

6. Momentum and Volatility:

7. The recent price action, highlighted by the rapid decline in December, suggests increased volatility and selling pressure. Should the stock fail to hold the $162.63 support level, investors may anticipate further downside, potentially revisiting the $140 support area.

Investors should closely monitor these critical levels to evaluate potential buying opportunities or heed caution regarding further downside risks.

Financial Performance and Metrics

Marathon Petroleum has demonstrated a robust financial standing, with the following key metrics:

• Total Revenue: Approximately $133.58 billion, showcasing the company's substantial operational scale.
• EBITDA: Around $8.29 billion, which reflects sturdy profitability and cash flow generation capabilities.

Profitability Metrics

• Net Income: Reported at $1.37 billion (or $4.51 per share) for Q3 2025, significantly up from $622 million (or $1.87 per share) in the previous year, although adjusted earnings per share fell short of expectations at $3.01 against an anticipated $3.16.

Valuation Metrics

• With approximately 300,602,479 shares outstanding and a current stock price of $162.63, the company exhibits a solid market presence. Notably, the total outstanding shares include 9,768,852 shorted shares, indicative of a modest 0.0366% of the company's float.

Despite recent earnings misses, analysts maintain a bullish outlook, with an ambitious target high price of $220.00, suggesting approximately 35.3% upside potential from its current price.

Recent News and Developments

In December, Marathon Petroleum announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.00 per share, continuing its track record of strong shareholder returns. This marks the third consecutive year it has implemented such an increase, confirming its commitment to returning value to shareholders amidst evolving market dynamics.

However, the company faced hurdles with a net income beaten by high operational costs, leading to a noticeable decline in pre-market trading. Yet, despite these challenges, MPC's stock achieved a 52-week high of $186.31 in September 2025, signaling confidence from investors.

Analysts have responded favorably to the developments, with TD Cowen raising its price target to $195 and UBS maintaining a Buy rating with a $203 target, lauding the company's strategic initiatives and favorable market conditions.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Recommendations

The consensus recommendation among analysts leans towards a "buy," denoted by a key recommendation score of 2.16 derived from 18 analyst opinions. This reflects a strong-positive sentiment regarding Marathon Petroleum's stock, advising potential investors to open positions at current levels to benefit from anticipated price appreciation.

• Target Price Range:
• High Price Target: $220.00
• Mean Target Price: $200.67
• Median Target Price: $203.50

Conclusion: Opportunities and Risks

In summary, Marathon Petroleum Corporation presents a compelling investment opportunity grounded in its strong market position, substantial revenue generation capabilities, and commitment to returning value to shareholders. While current market sentiment leans bullish, emphasizing potential growth, investors should remain vigilant regarding recent bearish trends and technical indicators.

Opportunities:

• Attractive valuation against projected target prices reflecting potential appreciation.
• Commitment to dividend increases enhances shareholder returns.

Risks:

• Recent earnings misses signal potential operational challenges.
• Current market volatility and bearish crossover trends may create downside pressures.

Investors are encouraged to conduct thorough due diligence, weighing both opportunities and risks, as they consider Marathon Petroleum for their investment portfolios.